Projecting 2017: The Big Ten Conference
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Intro
Projecting the Big 12
The Big Ten Conference has had several "down" years in the recent past. If these numbers mean anything (and they probably don't), the 2017-18 season could see a turnaround. Right now, six teams sport at least 21.9 win shares and two of them are at 31.0 or more - totals that put them in the top four nationally.
With that tease, let's get after it. From 14 to 1 in the Big Ten...
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Last Year: 15-18, 3-15) -- 10.9 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Rutgers looked like they would welcome back much of their core. Instead, Nigel Johnson (2.5 win shares) and Jonathan Laurent (0.5) announced transfers (so did freshman Ibrahima Diallo). C.J. Gettys (2.2) and Khalil Batie are also gone due to the exhaustion of their eligibility.
WHO'S BACK: Seniors DeShawn Freeman (3.1) and Mike Williams (2.9) headline a group that also includes junior Corey Sanders (1.5) and sophomore Isssa Thiam (0.9). The return of Johnson would have likely made for a pretty dangerous offensive team. Alas, the slack will have to be picked up by senior Candido Sa (0.6), junior Shaquille Doorson (0.4), sophomore Eugene Omoruyi (0.3) and possibly redshirt freshman Matt Bullock.
WHO'S NEW: Steve Pikiell's first full year as coach helped him garner a two-man recruiting class of point guards - Soufiane Mensah from Marshalltown CC & freshman-to-be Geo Baker. Both have been slapped with the standard 0.6 projection rating.
WHAT'S NEXT: Pikiell still has two scholarships to play with after convincing Quinnipiac transfer Peter Kiss to be a Scarlet Knight. Kiss, though, is ineligible this season and will have three years of remaining eligibility. Rutgers is also hot after a prep shooting guard - maybe Terrell Turner and/or Tevin Florent - to add to the class.
13. Illinois Fighting Illini (Last Year: 20-15, 8-10) -- 12.1 Win Shares (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: In the Big Ten, only Michigan and Wisconsin lost more win shares than Illinois, who says goodbye to Malcolm Hill (5.3), Tracy Abrams (2.7) and Maverick Morgan (2.4) among others.
WHO'S BACK: The senior class is basically nonexistent, so next year's team will rely on the juniors - Michael Finke (2.0), Leron Black (1.8) and Jalen Coleman-Lands (1.8) - and the sophomores - Te'Jon Lucas (1.3) and Kipper Nichols (1.2). D.J Williams (0.4) and Aaron Jordan (0.3) -- both juniors -- are also there.
WHO'S NEW: This is a recruiting class that doesn't include top 50 center Jeremiah Tilmon, as he asked out of his NLI, but new coach Brad Underwood did do a fantastic job of landing top 50ish combo guard Mark Smith (1.2) recently. Two other Rivals150 players - Trent Frazier (1.2) and Da'Monte Williams (0.9) - are also currently in the class.
WHAT'S NEXT: There's no doubt that Coach Underwood would love to talk Tilmon back into joining the group, but that ship may have sailed at this point. Obadiah Toppin is the only other big that has reportedly received an offer, but guards Alonzo Verge Jr., previous Illini pledge Javon Pickett and Justin Minaya could also be options.
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Last Year: 12-19, 6-12) -- 13.2 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: What an interesting offseason for Nebraska. It appeared as though they would only have to make a few minor touch-ups to their roster. Instead, the graduation of Tai Webster (2.9) was joined by the transfers of Nick Fuller (0.3), Jeriah Horne (0.5), Ed Morrow (1.4) and Michael Jacobson (1.7).
WHO'S BACK: Their semi-famed (in Nebraska at least) class from a couple years ago is now left with Glynn Watson Jr. (3.0) and Jack McVeigh (1.5), who will be juniors. Seniors Evan Taylor (0.8) and Anton Gill (0.5) will also return. Gill's total comes from his final year at Louisville rather than his pretty pitiful 12 games at Nebraska. That's based on a little intuition that he can't really be that bad, and probably also some bias.
The sophomore class also returns Jordy Tshimanga (0.6) and Isaiah Roby (0.5). Anything that proves to be too much on the Gill projection will likely be made up by what Tshimanga does next year. He already showed signs late in his freshman campaign.
WHO'S NEW: Just when it looked like the ship was completely sinking, Nana Akenten popped into the Rivals150, top 100 sharpshooter Thomas Allen committed and big man grad transfer Duby Okeke (late Winthrop) pledged to Coach Tim Miles. That's a total of 3.0 win shares between the three. There's also the additions of transfers James Palmer (from Miami) and Isaac Copeland (from Georgetown).
Palmer racked up 0.8 win shares in each of his first two years at the U, so that's his "projection" here. And then there's the case of Copeland, who I slapped with a 2.6 projection. That comes from his last full (sophomore) season with the Hoyas. Nebraska is petitioning for Copeland to be eligible immediately, but there still stands a chance he will have to sit the first semester. The current projection has him playing the full year. That will be adjusted if he's denied.
WHAT'S NEXT: With what's on the line, I'm thinking Miles will elect not to save any scholarships for a rainy day. They're hot after Princeton grad transfer Hans Brase, who has visited Lincoln but he will visit Clemson later this week. JUCO guard Chris Darrington and prep point guard Tyler Made are also options at this point.
11. Penn State Nittany Lions (Last Year: 15-18, 6-12) -- 14.4 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Three grad transfers left town: Payton Banks (1.8), Terrence Samuel (1.0) and Isaiah Washington.
WHO'S BACK: A terrific sophomore class. Mike Watkins (3.6), Lamar Stevens (2.3) and Tony Carr (2.2) all had their moments, and they should expect more from Nazeer Bostick this upcoming season. Senior Shep Garner (2.2) and junior Josh Reaves (2.2) are others back of note.
WHO'S NEW: Virginia Tech transfer Satchel Pierce put up 0.3 win shares in a half season with the Hokies during his sophomore season. As a junior, I'm projecting him for a full season 0.6 win shares. Same goes for incoming freshman three-star Jamari Wheeler. Trent Buttrick is an unranked freshman without a projection at this point. They also just received a verbal from John Harrar - a former Army football commit.
WHAT'S NEXT: With one scholarship available, Patrick Chambers is likely on the graduate transfer hunt to add to next year's team despite the rotation looking pretty solid.
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (Last Year: 17-15, 7-11) -- 15.6 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The Buckeyes lost Trevor Thompson (3.9) to the NBA, Marc Loving (2.2) to graduation and David Bell (0.6) to the transfer world.
WHO'S BACK: Seniors Jae'Sean Tate (3.6), Keita Bates-Diop (2.1) and Kam Williams (1.8) are joined by juniors JaQuan Lyle (2.9) and C.J. Jackson (1.7) and sophomore Micah Potter (1.1) to lead the next season. Bates-Diop, who played just nine games before suffering a season-ending injury, gets a prorated total. Redshirt freshman Derek Funderburk also snags a 1.2 projection based on his ranking (77th) from the 2016 class. He missed his first year due to a nagging ankle injury and will undoubtedly be a big part of this team.
WHO'S NEW: Out goes Thompson, in comes top 75 recruit Kaleb Wesson, who is projected for a 1.2 win share total at the center position. Another, Braxton Beverly, is a three-star according to Rivals and picks up a 0.6 projection.
WHAT'S NEXT: There's one scholarship hanging out there, and Coach Thad Matta hopes Pittsburgh grad transfer Cameron Johnson will be the one to accept it. Johnson, though, has plenty of other suitors, and they're likely not counting on it. A recent report says he will visit, so it's possible.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (Last Year: 27-10, 12-6) -- 16.5 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: A lot. The most in the Big Ten Conference (right now) to be clear. To be even more clear: Nigel Hayes (5.2), Bronson Koenig (4.6), Zack Showalter (4.5), Vitto Brown (2.1) and grad transfer Jordan Hill (0.7).
WHO'S BACK: Junior Ethan Happ (6.4) is the headliner and star, but he'll need some help. Sophomore D'Mitrick Trice (2.0) and junior Khalil Iverson (1.8) are the only others that accumulated at least 1.0 win shares last year. Sophomore Brevin Pritzl was worth a prorated 0.9 while juniors Alex Illikainen (0.7), Andy Van Vliet (0.6) and Charles Thomas IV (0.4) provided a little here and there. Freshman Aleem Ford was also slapped with a 0.6 projection after redshirting a year ago.
WHO'S NEW: The Badgers have a pretty strong recruiting class coming in, led by top 100 guys Brad Davison and Nathan Reuvers, who both pick up the 1.2 projector. Three-star Kobe King adds a 0.6 projection.
WHAT'S NEXT: There are two free scholarships, but I haven't found any reports of outstanding offers to junior college or prep athletes. With no seniors on scholarship, they could hang on to the two remaining ships and go for a bigger class next year.
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (Last Year: 19-15, 10-8) -- 17.3 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only Peter Jok (graduation) and Dale Jones (transfer). Jok represented 4.2 win shares while Jones -0.1. I thought Iowa would land higher than eight on this list, but as you will see, their production was generally Jok and spread fairly evenly around among a lot of others.
WHO'S BACK: The system loves Nicholas Baer (3.2). Actually, who doesn't love Nicholas Baer? After the junior-to-be, Iowa brings back sophomores Jordan Bohannon (2.6), Cordell Pemsl (2.3) and Tyler Cook (prorated 2.0), who all had their moments of greatness. That was especially true for Bohannon down the stretch, as he had two 20-10 point-assist games in his final three - and the other was 19 & 11.
Other juniors Ahmad Wagner (1.5) and Brady Ellingson (1.3) and sophomores Isaiah Moss (0.8) and Ryan Kriener (0.6) were also functional. And senior Dom Uhl (0.7) did some things here and there. There's just a ton of experience coming back. Nobody like Jok, but not many are.
WHO'S NEW: This class took a hit when Rivals150 recruit Connor McCaffery announced he would redshirt his freshman season and focus more on baseball. That's 0.9 off the board. However, two other 150 recruits in Luka Garza (107th) and Jack Nunge (147th) pick up the 0.9 projection.
WHAT'S NEXT: Nothing. Connor's dad and future coach, Fran, says there will be no more defections, and that's that.
7. Maryland Terrapins (Last Year: 24-9, 12-6) -- 18.9 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Sometimes it doesn't pay to stay in school. Melo Trimble (3.8) was much more highly thought of after his freshman season than he is now, as he finally does enter the NBA Draft. Damonte Dodd (1.6) and L.G. Gill (1.2) have graduated, and Jaylen Brantley (1.3) and Micah Thomas are transferring.
WHO'S BACK: The sophomore class is loaded. Anthony Cowan (3.3), Kevin Huerter (3.2) and Justin Jackson (3.1) had great debut seasons and are joined by senior Michal Cekovsky (2.0) and junior Ivan Bender (1.7) among others. Even with the loss of Trimble, this team still looks to be in good shape.
WHO'S NEW: Despite bringing in two top 65 recruits in Darryl Morsell (64th) and Bruno Fernando (54th), graduate transfer Sean Obi (2.0 win shares) is the big one. Obi had a terrific sophomore season at Rice (2.6 win shares), but his time at Duke didn't yield the same results (0.1). I took his 2.7 win shares, divided them by the 40 games he's played in D1 basketball and then multiplied it by a standard 30-game season. Thus, the 2.0 win shares. If he gives them more than that, I will be surprised and probably a little scared for the rest of the Big Ten.
WHAT'S NEXT: Maryland hopes one of their final two remaining scholarships goes to combo guard M.J. Walker, a five-star recruit. Other than that, it doesn't look like they are hot on the trails of any transfers. That, of course, could change.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (Last Year: 18-16, 7-11) -- 21.9 Win Shares (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: There could certainly be more, but the only two gone from this team are early entries Thomas Bryant (3.8) and O.G. Anunoby (prorated 3.4).
WHO'S BACK: A lot. If they can adjust to the new coach/system, there's no reason why the Hoosiers can't be Big Ten contenders. Of course, the same could be said for this past year's team. Seniors James Blackmon (4.2) and Robert Johnson (2.9) are testing the NBA waters, but they haven't signed with an agent at this point. Junior Juwan Morgan (2.9) and sophomore De'Ron Davis (1.8) are also key pieces slated to return.
But that's not all. Collin Hartman, who blasted an emotional speech and proposed to his girlfriend on senior day this past year, is returning for another year after missing all of last season with a knee injury. His 2.3 win shares from the previous season are projected into this total. There's also senior Josh Newkirk (1.9), sophomores Devonte Green (1.0) and Curtis Jones (0.7) and several others that could help to make Archie's first year in Bloomington a memorable one.
WHO'S NEW: Miller has held on to the commitment of Rivals150 slasher Justin Smith and picked up commits from Rivals150 center Clifton Moore and three-star guard Aljami Durham. All three add up to a total of 2.4 projected win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: Somebody's got to go. That could be Blackmon or Johnson or both. Or it could be neither. There are some definite candidates to get "processed" out, but I'm not about to throw names out there.
5. Northwestern Wildcats (Last Year: 24-12, 10-8) -- 22.4 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Two pretty good players are gone from Northwestern's greatest season in school history, but that's it. Sanjay Lumpkin (3.6) and Nathan Taphorn (1.6) will be remembered as the senior class that did the deed.
WHO'S BACK: Since only two are gone, that means there is a lot back, including four with at least 3.2 win shares. Seniors Scottie Lindsey (3.5) and Bryant McIntosh (3.2) and juniors Vic Law (3.8) and Dererk Pardon (3.6) make up a tremendous foursome. Throw in senior Gavin Skelly (2.2) and junior Aaron Falzon (2.4 from his freshman year), and this is a serious, serious unit.
There's even depth. Sophomores Barret Benson (1.0) and Isiah Brown (0.8) could find bigger roles this year, and redshirt freshman Rapolas Ivanauskas, who missed last year due to injury, gets a projected 1.2 win shares thanks to his top 100 ranking from the year previous.
WHO'S NEW: It'll be hard for him to crack the lineup but three-star guard Anthony Gaines gets a 0.6 projected win share anyway.
WHAT'S NEXT: This team looks set to do even bigger things than they did this past year. They're loaded at pretty much every position on the floor, and they're deep. I think I mentioned that. Chris Collins used one of his remaining scholarships on Boston College transfer A.J. Turner, but he's ineligible for this upcoming season. If he uses another it would likely be on prep point guard Jermaine Jackson Jr. Not that Jermaine Jackson Jr.
4. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Last Year: 24-10, 11-7) -- 22.6 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Akeem Springs (2.2) is the only player Coach Richard Pitino lost that provided any sort of anything to last year's NCAA Tournament team.
WHO'S BACK: Everybody else! That means seniors Nate Mason (4.1) and Reggie Lynch (3.0), juniors Jordan Murphy (3.6) and Dupree McBrayer (3.0) and sophomores Amir Coffey (3.6) and Eric Curry (2.0). They could certainly use a little depth, as the next highest returning win share total is that of Bakary Konate (0.8), followed by Davonte Fitzgerald (0.5) and then some 0.1s.
WHO'S NEW: And here's some added depth and help. Top 60 point guard Isaiah Washington (1.2) and three-star shooting guard Jamir Harris (0.6) should add the extra punch that Coach Pitino's offense maybe lacked a little last year.
WHAT'S NEXT: Pitino used his last remaining scholarship on a transfer from his dad's joint, Matz Stockman. The 7-foot-0 senior-to-be has to sit out this upcoming season.
3. Michigan Wolverines (Last Year: 26-12, 10-8) -- 24.3 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: There have certainly been some big losses. Derrick Walton (7.1) and Zak Irvin (3.5) both had strong years and careers, and the transfer of Mark Donnal (2.0) was expected, despite his solid production.
WHO'S BACK: This team could very soon be decimated with the chance juniors D.J. Wilson (4.8) and Mo Wagner (4.3) both stay in the draft. If they stay in school, though, things look really good with the other returns of seniors Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (3.5) and Duncan Robinson (2.7) and some others we'll get to right now...
WHO'S NEW: Stop me if you've heard this one before: Highly-ranked Kentucky recruit transfers to get more playing time elsewhere - and shines. Charles Matthews was the 48th ranked player in his class, and after one year of averaging just under two points for Big Blue Nation, he made the move to another Big Blue. I'm projecting him for 1.8 win shares due to his previous ranking (the Malik Newman rule).
Ohio star point guard Jaaron Simmons also announced that he will be transferring to Michigan - or entering the NBA Draft. If he goes to Ann Arbor, he's worth another 3.2 win shares, and I think that'll be on the light side with the talent he could have around him and the offense he will be directing.
Redshirt freshman Austin Davis (0.6), two Rivals150 recruits in Jordan Poole (0.9) and Isaiah Livers (0.9) and three-star point guard Eli Brooks (0.6) will also be added to the mix.
WHAT'S NEXT: John Beilein put Michigan's name in the Cameron Johnson sweepstakes, but they didn't make his top six. I'm sure he has some other options on the backburner should Wagner and Wilson leave school. But I'm hoping they don't, because this team looks scary good.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (Last Year: 27-8, 14-4) -- 31.0 Win Shares (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Put a big asterisk on this one, but Purdue only loses Spike Albrecht (1.0) and Jon McKeeman (0.0) from the Big Ten Conference champion.
WHO'S BACK: Caleb "Biggie" Swanigan (6.4) is the headliner, and his ultimate decision on the NBA looms plenty large. Same for Vince Edwards (4.8), who is also testing the draft waters. However, there's still a nice nucleus returning to build around. 7-foot-2 senior Isaac Haas (3.1) is joined in the class by Dakota Mathias (4.3) and P.J. Thompson (3.8). Junior Ryan Cline (1.9) and sophomores Carsen Edwards (1.9) and Jacquil Taylor (0.7) are also back.
Redshirt freshman Matt Haarms (0.6) is another 7-foot-2 manbeast that graduated high school and joined the team at semester. A semester of banging around with Haas and Swanigan can only help.
WHO'S NEW: Matt Painter has certainly stocked his recruiting class full of talent just in case. Haarms was already mentioned, but there's also top 100 guard Nojel Eastern (1.2), top 150 wing Aaron Wheeler (0.9), sharpshooting Sasha Stefanovic (0.6) and junior college power forward Eden Ewing (0.6).
WHAT'S NEXT: The decision is what's next. Swanigan has until mid-May to make the call. That's the same for Edwards, but with all due respect to Edwards, I think we're all listening more intently to Biggie. With him, they are a top five team. Without him, they're probably a 4-5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
1. Michigan State Spartans (Last Year: 20-15, 10-8) -- 31.6 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Injuries and a very tough early schedule hurt the Spartans this past season. I'm sure relying on a bunch of freshmen didn't help either. Seniors Alvin Ellis (1.6), Eron Harris (1.6) and Matt Van Dyk (0.7) are the only departures.
WHO'S BACK: First of all, we have to mention that it's not completely set in stone that Ben Carter (2.1) and Gavin Schilling (1.5) will be back, but it's possible. Carter and Schilling missed all of last season and could make this Spartan frontcourt ridiculously dynamic - even more than it already will be. Lourawls Nairn (1.6) will join those two in the senior class.
The juniors are pretty solid, too. Kenny Goins (1.4), Matt McQuaid (1.3) and Kyle Ahrens (0.6) make up that group. And then there's the sophomore group. Miles Bridges (4.5 - prorated) would have been a lottery pick, but he shocked everybody by announcing his return to East Lansing. He's joined by Nick Ward (3.8), Cassius Winston (2.3) and Joshua Langford (1.8) in the class - and they all showed flashes last season. This team should be absolutely sick if all goes according to plan.
WHO'S NEW: As if it was needed, Michigan State added more in the frontcourt with Jaren Jackson (4.5) - the 6th ranked player in the country according to Rivals - and Xavier Tillman (1.2) - the 82nd ranked player. It will be tough sledding to find some time with all that depth down low, but I'm sure Tom Izzo will find a way.
WHAT'S NEXT: All of those win shares - the third-most in the nation by the way - and there's still one more scholarship left to use. Saginaw native and five-star Tugs Bowen said he will "definitely" announce in April. It's May now, so it could come at any time. If he picks Sparty then you can go ahead and mark them down as the preseason No. 1. If he doesn't, Izzo could search the transfer market as he did with Carter.
Wrap Up
The Big Ten had a recent three-year stretch where they were easily Ken Pomeroy's top conference. The next year (2014), they dropped to number two, and they haven't been that high since. In 2016, they dropped to five and in 2017 it was up to four. With six teams sporting at least 21.9 win shares, and the middle of the league also looking pretty decent, I think the Big Ten will climb a little further this season. I don't know if it will run to the top with what the Big 12 has going, but the jokes about the B1G should soon be coming to an end.
Michigan State 31.6 (12)
Purdue 31.0 (14)
Michigan 24.3 (13)
Minnesota 22.6 (13)
Northwestern 22.4 (12)
Indiana 21.9 (14)
Maryland 18.9 (11)
Iowa 17.3 (13)
Wisconsin 16.5 (11)
Ohio State 15.6 (12)
Penn State 14.4 (12)
Nebraska 13.3 (11)
Illinois 12.1 (10)
Rutgers 10.9 (11)
Intro
Projecting the Big 12
The Big Ten Conference has had several "down" years in the recent past. If these numbers mean anything (and they probably don't), the 2017-18 season could see a turnaround. Right now, six teams sport at least 21.9 win shares and two of them are at 31.0 or more - totals that put them in the top four nationally.
With that tease, let's get after it. From 14 to 1 in the Big Ten...
14. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Last Year: 15-18, 3-15) -- 10.9 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Rutgers looked like they would welcome back much of their core. Instead, Nigel Johnson (2.5 win shares) and Jonathan Laurent (0.5) announced transfers (so did freshman Ibrahima Diallo). C.J. Gettys (2.2) and Khalil Batie are also gone due to the exhaustion of their eligibility.
WHO'S BACK: Seniors DeShawn Freeman (3.1) and Mike Williams (2.9) headline a group that also includes junior Corey Sanders (1.5) and sophomore Isssa Thiam (0.9). The return of Johnson would have likely made for a pretty dangerous offensive team. Alas, the slack will have to be picked up by senior Candido Sa (0.6), junior Shaquille Doorson (0.4), sophomore Eugene Omoruyi (0.3) and possibly redshirt freshman Matt Bullock.
WHO'S NEW: Steve Pikiell's first full year as coach helped him garner a two-man recruiting class of point guards - Soufiane Mensah from Marshalltown CC & freshman-to-be Geo Baker. Both have been slapped with the standard 0.6 projection rating.
WHAT'S NEXT: Pikiell still has two scholarships to play with after convincing Quinnipiac transfer Peter Kiss to be a Scarlet Knight. Kiss, though, is ineligible this season and will have three years of remaining eligibility. Rutgers is also hot after a prep shooting guard - maybe Terrell Turner and/or Tevin Florent - to add to the class.
13. Illinois Fighting Illini (Last Year: 20-15, 8-10) -- 12.1 Win Shares (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: In the Big Ten, only Michigan and Wisconsin lost more win shares than Illinois, who says goodbye to Malcolm Hill (5.3), Tracy Abrams (2.7) and Maverick Morgan (2.4) among others.
WHO'S BACK: The senior class is basically nonexistent, so next year's team will rely on the juniors - Michael Finke (2.0), Leron Black (1.8) and Jalen Coleman-Lands (1.8) - and the sophomores - Te'Jon Lucas (1.3) and Kipper Nichols (1.2). D.J Williams (0.4) and Aaron Jordan (0.3) -- both juniors -- are also there.
WHO'S NEW: This is a recruiting class that doesn't include top 50 center Jeremiah Tilmon, as he asked out of his NLI, but new coach Brad Underwood did do a fantastic job of landing top 50ish combo guard Mark Smith (1.2) recently. Two other Rivals150 players - Trent Frazier (1.2) and Da'Monte Williams (0.9) - are also currently in the class.
WHAT'S NEXT: There's no doubt that Coach Underwood would love to talk Tilmon back into joining the group, but that ship may have sailed at this point. Obadiah Toppin is the only other big that has reportedly received an offer, but guards Alonzo Verge Jr., previous Illini pledge Javon Pickett and Justin Minaya could also be options.
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Last Year: 12-19, 6-12) -- 13.2 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: What an interesting offseason for Nebraska. It appeared as though they would only have to make a few minor touch-ups to their roster. Instead, the graduation of Tai Webster (2.9) was joined by the transfers of Nick Fuller (0.3), Jeriah Horne (0.5), Ed Morrow (1.4) and Michael Jacobson (1.7).
WHO'S BACK: Their semi-famed (in Nebraska at least) class from a couple years ago is now left with Glynn Watson Jr. (3.0) and Jack McVeigh (1.5), who will be juniors. Seniors Evan Taylor (0.8) and Anton Gill (0.5) will also return. Gill's total comes from his final year at Louisville rather than his pretty pitiful 12 games at Nebraska. That's based on a little intuition that he can't really be that bad, and probably also some bias.
The sophomore class also returns Jordy Tshimanga (0.6) and Isaiah Roby (0.5). Anything that proves to be too much on the Gill projection will likely be made up by what Tshimanga does next year. He already showed signs late in his freshman campaign.
WHO'S NEW: Just when it looked like the ship was completely sinking, Nana Akenten popped into the Rivals150, top 100 sharpshooter Thomas Allen committed and big man grad transfer Duby Okeke (late Winthrop) pledged to Coach Tim Miles. That's a total of 3.0 win shares between the three. There's also the additions of transfers James Palmer (from Miami) and Isaac Copeland (from Georgetown).
Palmer racked up 0.8 win shares in each of his first two years at the U, so that's his "projection" here. And then there's the case of Copeland, who I slapped with a 2.6 projection. That comes from his last full (sophomore) season with the Hoyas. Nebraska is petitioning for Copeland to be eligible immediately, but there still stands a chance he will have to sit the first semester. The current projection has him playing the full year. That will be adjusted if he's denied.
WHAT'S NEXT: With what's on the line, I'm thinking Miles will elect not to save any scholarships for a rainy day. They're hot after Princeton grad transfer Hans Brase, who has visited Lincoln but he will visit Clemson later this week. JUCO guard Chris Darrington and prep point guard Tyler Made are also options at this point.
11. Penn State Nittany Lions (Last Year: 15-18, 6-12) -- 14.4 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Three grad transfers left town: Payton Banks (1.8), Terrence Samuel (1.0) and Isaiah Washington.
WHO'S BACK: A terrific sophomore class. Mike Watkins (3.6), Lamar Stevens (2.3) and Tony Carr (2.2) all had their moments, and they should expect more from Nazeer Bostick this upcoming season. Senior Shep Garner (2.2) and junior Josh Reaves (2.2) are others back of note.
WHO'S NEW: Virginia Tech transfer Satchel Pierce put up 0.3 win shares in a half season with the Hokies during his sophomore season. As a junior, I'm projecting him for a full season 0.6 win shares. Same goes for incoming freshman three-star Jamari Wheeler. Trent Buttrick is an unranked freshman without a projection at this point. They also just received a verbal from John Harrar - a former Army football commit.
WHAT'S NEXT: With one scholarship available, Patrick Chambers is likely on the graduate transfer hunt to add to next year's team despite the rotation looking pretty solid.
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (Last Year: 17-15, 7-11) -- 15.6 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The Buckeyes lost Trevor Thompson (3.9) to the NBA, Marc Loving (2.2) to graduation and David Bell (0.6) to the transfer world.
WHO'S BACK: Seniors Jae'Sean Tate (3.6), Keita Bates-Diop (2.1) and Kam Williams (1.8) are joined by juniors JaQuan Lyle (2.9) and C.J. Jackson (1.7) and sophomore Micah Potter (1.1) to lead the next season. Bates-Diop, who played just nine games before suffering a season-ending injury, gets a prorated total. Redshirt freshman Derek Funderburk also snags a 1.2 projection based on his ranking (77th) from the 2016 class. He missed his first year due to a nagging ankle injury and will undoubtedly be a big part of this team.
WHO'S NEW: Out goes Thompson, in comes top 75 recruit Kaleb Wesson, who is projected for a 1.2 win share total at the center position. Another, Braxton Beverly, is a three-star according to Rivals and picks up a 0.6 projection.
WHAT'S NEXT: There's one scholarship hanging out there, and Coach Thad Matta hopes Pittsburgh grad transfer Cameron Johnson will be the one to accept it. Johnson, though, has plenty of other suitors, and they're likely not counting on it. A recent report says he will visit, so it's possible.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (Last Year: 27-10, 12-6) -- 16.5 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: A lot. The most in the Big Ten Conference (right now) to be clear. To be even more clear: Nigel Hayes (5.2), Bronson Koenig (4.6), Zack Showalter (4.5), Vitto Brown (2.1) and grad transfer Jordan Hill (0.7).
WHO'S BACK: Junior Ethan Happ (6.4) is the headliner and star, but he'll need some help. Sophomore D'Mitrick Trice (2.0) and junior Khalil Iverson (1.8) are the only others that accumulated at least 1.0 win shares last year. Sophomore Brevin Pritzl was worth a prorated 0.9 while juniors Alex Illikainen (0.7), Andy Van Vliet (0.6) and Charles Thomas IV (0.4) provided a little here and there. Freshman Aleem Ford was also slapped with a 0.6 projection after redshirting a year ago.
WHO'S NEW: The Badgers have a pretty strong recruiting class coming in, led by top 100 guys Brad Davison and Nathan Reuvers, who both pick up the 1.2 projector. Three-star Kobe King adds a 0.6 projection.
WHAT'S NEXT: There are two free scholarships, but I haven't found any reports of outstanding offers to junior college or prep athletes. With no seniors on scholarship, they could hang on to the two remaining ships and go for a bigger class next year.
8. Iowa Hawkeyes (Last Year: 19-15, 10-8) -- 17.3 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only Peter Jok (graduation) and Dale Jones (transfer). Jok represented 4.2 win shares while Jones -0.1. I thought Iowa would land higher than eight on this list, but as you will see, their production was generally Jok and spread fairly evenly around among a lot of others.
WHO'S BACK: The system loves Nicholas Baer (3.2). Actually, who doesn't love Nicholas Baer? After the junior-to-be, Iowa brings back sophomores Jordan Bohannon (2.6), Cordell Pemsl (2.3) and Tyler Cook (prorated 2.0), who all had their moments of greatness. That was especially true for Bohannon down the stretch, as he had two 20-10 point-assist games in his final three - and the other was 19 & 11.
Other juniors Ahmad Wagner (1.5) and Brady Ellingson (1.3) and sophomores Isaiah Moss (0.8) and Ryan Kriener (0.6) were also functional. And senior Dom Uhl (0.7) did some things here and there. There's just a ton of experience coming back. Nobody like Jok, but not many are.
WHO'S NEW: This class took a hit when Rivals150 recruit Connor McCaffery announced he would redshirt his freshman season and focus more on baseball. That's 0.9 off the board. However, two other 150 recruits in Luka Garza (107th) and Jack Nunge (147th) pick up the 0.9 projection.
WHAT'S NEXT: Nothing. Connor's dad and future coach, Fran, says there will be no more defections, and that's that.
7. Maryland Terrapins (Last Year: 24-9, 12-6) -- 18.9 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Sometimes it doesn't pay to stay in school. Melo Trimble (3.8) was much more highly thought of after his freshman season than he is now, as he finally does enter the NBA Draft. Damonte Dodd (1.6) and L.G. Gill (1.2) have graduated, and Jaylen Brantley (1.3) and Micah Thomas are transferring.
WHO'S BACK: The sophomore class is loaded. Anthony Cowan (3.3), Kevin Huerter (3.2) and Justin Jackson (3.1) had great debut seasons and are joined by senior Michal Cekovsky (2.0) and junior Ivan Bender (1.7) among others. Even with the loss of Trimble, this team still looks to be in good shape.
WHO'S NEW: Despite bringing in two top 65 recruits in Darryl Morsell (64th) and Bruno Fernando (54th), graduate transfer Sean Obi (2.0 win shares) is the big one. Obi had a terrific sophomore season at Rice (2.6 win shares), but his time at Duke didn't yield the same results (0.1). I took his 2.7 win shares, divided them by the 40 games he's played in D1 basketball and then multiplied it by a standard 30-game season. Thus, the 2.0 win shares. If he gives them more than that, I will be surprised and probably a little scared for the rest of the Big Ten.
WHAT'S NEXT: Maryland hopes one of their final two remaining scholarships goes to combo guard M.J. Walker, a five-star recruit. Other than that, it doesn't look like they are hot on the trails of any transfers. That, of course, could change.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (Last Year: 18-16, 7-11) -- 21.9 Win Shares (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: There could certainly be more, but the only two gone from this team are early entries Thomas Bryant (3.8) and O.G. Anunoby (prorated 3.4).
WHO'S BACK: A lot. If they can adjust to the new coach/system, there's no reason why the Hoosiers can't be Big Ten contenders. Of course, the same could be said for this past year's team. Seniors James Blackmon (4.2) and Robert Johnson (2.9) are testing the NBA waters, but they haven't signed with an agent at this point. Junior Juwan Morgan (2.9) and sophomore De'Ron Davis (1.8) are also key pieces slated to return.
But that's not all. Collin Hartman, who blasted an emotional speech and proposed to his girlfriend on senior day this past year, is returning for another year after missing all of last season with a knee injury. His 2.3 win shares from the previous season are projected into this total. There's also senior Josh Newkirk (1.9), sophomores Devonte Green (1.0) and Curtis Jones (0.7) and several others that could help to make Archie's first year in Bloomington a memorable one.
WHO'S NEW: Miller has held on to the commitment of Rivals150 slasher Justin Smith and picked up commits from Rivals150 center Clifton Moore and three-star guard Aljami Durham. All three add up to a total of 2.4 projected win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: Somebody's got to go. That could be Blackmon or Johnson or both. Or it could be neither. There are some definite candidates to get "processed" out, but I'm not about to throw names out there.
5. Northwestern Wildcats (Last Year: 24-12, 10-8) -- 22.4 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Two pretty good players are gone from Northwestern's greatest season in school history, but that's it. Sanjay Lumpkin (3.6) and Nathan Taphorn (1.6) will be remembered as the senior class that did the deed.
WHO'S BACK: Since only two are gone, that means there is a lot back, including four with at least 3.2 win shares. Seniors Scottie Lindsey (3.5) and Bryant McIntosh (3.2) and juniors Vic Law (3.8) and Dererk Pardon (3.6) make up a tremendous foursome. Throw in senior Gavin Skelly (2.2) and junior Aaron Falzon (2.4 from his freshman year), and this is a serious, serious unit.
There's even depth. Sophomores Barret Benson (1.0) and Isiah Brown (0.8) could find bigger roles this year, and redshirt freshman Rapolas Ivanauskas, who missed last year due to injury, gets a projected 1.2 win shares thanks to his top 100 ranking from the year previous.
WHO'S NEW: It'll be hard for him to crack the lineup but three-star guard Anthony Gaines gets a 0.6 projected win share anyway.
WHAT'S NEXT: This team looks set to do even bigger things than they did this past year. They're loaded at pretty much every position on the floor, and they're deep. I think I mentioned that. Chris Collins used one of his remaining scholarships on Boston College transfer A.J. Turner, but he's ineligible for this upcoming season. If he uses another it would likely be on prep point guard Jermaine Jackson Jr. Not that Jermaine Jackson Jr.
4. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Last Year: 24-10, 11-7) -- 22.6 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Akeem Springs (2.2) is the only player Coach Richard Pitino lost that provided any sort of anything to last year's NCAA Tournament team.
WHO'S BACK: Everybody else! That means seniors Nate Mason (4.1) and Reggie Lynch (3.0), juniors Jordan Murphy (3.6) and Dupree McBrayer (3.0) and sophomores Amir Coffey (3.6) and Eric Curry (2.0). They could certainly use a little depth, as the next highest returning win share total is that of Bakary Konate (0.8), followed by Davonte Fitzgerald (0.5) and then some 0.1s.
WHO'S NEW: And here's some added depth and help. Top 60 point guard Isaiah Washington (1.2) and three-star shooting guard Jamir Harris (0.6) should add the extra punch that Coach Pitino's offense maybe lacked a little last year.
WHAT'S NEXT: Pitino used his last remaining scholarship on a transfer from his dad's joint, Matz Stockman. The 7-foot-0 senior-to-be has to sit out this upcoming season.
3. Michigan Wolverines (Last Year: 26-12, 10-8) -- 24.3 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: There have certainly been some big losses. Derrick Walton (7.1) and Zak Irvin (3.5) both had strong years and careers, and the transfer of Mark Donnal (2.0) was expected, despite his solid production.
WHO'S BACK: This team could very soon be decimated with the chance juniors D.J. Wilson (4.8) and Mo Wagner (4.3) both stay in the draft. If they stay in school, though, things look really good with the other returns of seniors Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (3.5) and Duncan Robinson (2.7) and some others we'll get to right now...
WHO'S NEW: Stop me if you've heard this one before: Highly-ranked Kentucky recruit transfers to get more playing time elsewhere - and shines. Charles Matthews was the 48th ranked player in his class, and after one year of averaging just under two points for Big Blue Nation, he made the move to another Big Blue. I'm projecting him for 1.8 win shares due to his previous ranking (the Malik Newman rule).
Ohio star point guard Jaaron Simmons also announced that he will be transferring to Michigan - or entering the NBA Draft. If he goes to Ann Arbor, he's worth another 3.2 win shares, and I think that'll be on the light side with the talent he could have around him and the offense he will be directing.
Redshirt freshman Austin Davis (0.6), two Rivals150 recruits in Jordan Poole (0.9) and Isaiah Livers (0.9) and three-star point guard Eli Brooks (0.6) will also be added to the mix.
WHAT'S NEXT: John Beilein put Michigan's name in the Cameron Johnson sweepstakes, but they didn't make his top six. I'm sure he has some other options on the backburner should Wagner and Wilson leave school. But I'm hoping they don't, because this team looks scary good.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (Last Year: 27-8, 14-4) -- 31.0 Win Shares (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Put a big asterisk on this one, but Purdue only loses Spike Albrecht (1.0) and Jon McKeeman (0.0) from the Big Ten Conference champion.
WHO'S BACK: Caleb "Biggie" Swanigan (6.4) is the headliner, and his ultimate decision on the NBA looms plenty large. Same for Vince Edwards (4.8), who is also testing the draft waters. However, there's still a nice nucleus returning to build around. 7-foot-2 senior Isaac Haas (3.1) is joined in the class by Dakota Mathias (4.3) and P.J. Thompson (3.8). Junior Ryan Cline (1.9) and sophomores Carsen Edwards (1.9) and Jacquil Taylor (0.7) are also back.
Redshirt freshman Matt Haarms (0.6) is another 7-foot-2 manbeast that graduated high school and joined the team at semester. A semester of banging around with Haas and Swanigan can only help.
WHO'S NEW: Matt Painter has certainly stocked his recruiting class full of talent just in case. Haarms was already mentioned, but there's also top 100 guard Nojel Eastern (1.2), top 150 wing Aaron Wheeler (0.9), sharpshooting Sasha Stefanovic (0.6) and junior college power forward Eden Ewing (0.6).
WHAT'S NEXT: The decision is what's next. Swanigan has until mid-May to make the call. That's the same for Edwards, but with all due respect to Edwards, I think we're all listening more intently to Biggie. With him, they are a top five team. Without him, they're probably a 4-5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
1. Michigan State Spartans (Last Year: 20-15, 10-8) -- 31.6 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Injuries and a very tough early schedule hurt the Spartans this past season. I'm sure relying on a bunch of freshmen didn't help either. Seniors Alvin Ellis (1.6), Eron Harris (1.6) and Matt Van Dyk (0.7) are the only departures.
WHO'S BACK: First of all, we have to mention that it's not completely set in stone that Ben Carter (2.1) and Gavin Schilling (1.5) will be back, but it's possible. Carter and Schilling missed all of last season and could make this Spartan frontcourt ridiculously dynamic - even more than it already will be. Lourawls Nairn (1.6) will join those two in the senior class.
The juniors are pretty solid, too. Kenny Goins (1.4), Matt McQuaid (1.3) and Kyle Ahrens (0.6) make up that group. And then there's the sophomore group. Miles Bridges (4.5 - prorated) would have been a lottery pick, but he shocked everybody by announcing his return to East Lansing. He's joined by Nick Ward (3.8), Cassius Winston (2.3) and Joshua Langford (1.8) in the class - and they all showed flashes last season. This team should be absolutely sick if all goes according to plan.
WHO'S NEW: As if it was needed, Michigan State added more in the frontcourt with Jaren Jackson (4.5) - the 6th ranked player in the country according to Rivals - and Xavier Tillman (1.2) - the 82nd ranked player. It will be tough sledding to find some time with all that depth down low, but I'm sure Tom Izzo will find a way.
WHAT'S NEXT: All of those win shares - the third-most in the nation by the way - and there's still one more scholarship left to use. Saginaw native and five-star Tugs Bowen said he will "definitely" announce in April. It's May now, so it could come at any time. If he picks Sparty then you can go ahead and mark them down as the preseason No. 1. If he doesn't, Izzo could search the transfer market as he did with Carter.
Wrap Up
The Big Ten had a recent three-year stretch where they were easily Ken Pomeroy's top conference. The next year (2014), they dropped to number two, and they haven't been that high since. In 2016, they dropped to five and in 2017 it was up to four. With six teams sporting at least 21.9 win shares, and the middle of the league also looking pretty decent, I think the Big Ten will climb a little further this season. I don't know if it will run to the top with what the Big 12 has going, but the jokes about the B1G should soon be coming to an end.
Michigan State 31.6 (12)
Purdue 31.0 (14)
Michigan 24.3 (13)
Minnesota 22.6 (13)
Northwestern 22.4 (12)
Indiana 21.9 (14)
Maryland 18.9 (11)
Iowa 17.3 (13)
Wisconsin 16.5 (11)
Ohio State 15.6 (12)
Penn State 14.4 (12)
Nebraska 13.3 (11)
Illinois 12.1 (10)
Rutgers 10.9 (11)
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