Projecting 2017: Big 12 Conference
Before we get started with conferences, there is one note that I forgot to include in the initial introduction that will come into play. I stated that I am giving 0.6 win shares for all of those not rated within the Rivals150. That's actually not true - and never has been true.
Instead, the only incoming freshmen that will receive the 0.6 win shares projection are those that have a three-star rating by any recruiting service - 247, Scout, Rivals or ESPN. All incoming junior college players, though, will receive at least 0.6. The exceptions to that rule will be explained on a case-by-case basis. With that said, let's get to the Big 12 Conference.
I feel like the best way to unveil this thing is to do the countdown much like a former MTV Top 100 videos of the year special on New Year's Eve. Yes, MTV used to show music videos. Here we go, from 10 to 1, in the Big 12.
The Big 12 has recently had some changes and updates. View those updates here.
10. Iowa State Cyclones (Last year: 24-11, 12-6) -- 10.3 WIN SHARES (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Might as well get the biggest shocker out of the way. Or maybe it isn't when you consider Iowa Stat lost 20.6 win shares with the graduation of Monte Morris (6.5), Naz Mitrou-Long (4.6), Matt Thomas (4.0), Deonte Burton (3.4), Darrell Bowie (1.3), Merrill Holden (0.6) and Stuart Nezlek (0.1 -- yes , he did!) and the transfer of Simeon Carter (0.1). A quick check shows this is the highest number lost in the Big 12, and it will likely be within the top two or three in the nation.
WHO'S BACK: Senior Donovan Jackson (1.9), junior Nick Weiler-Babb (1.8) and sophomore Solomon Young (1.5) lead the way. Junior Ray Kasongo is a transfer from Tennessee that played a very minor role in 22 games for the Vols, accumulating 0.3 win shares. I ended up tagging him with a prorated 0.4 WS based on what he would have done in 30 games.
There also remains the interesting cases of Jakolby Long and Cameron Lard. Long actually did get some bit minutes this season, and I played around with throwing a 101-150 projection on him, as he rated there in his recruiting class and since he played behind 100 seniors. However, I realized I wouldn't be able to have the same kind of insight into every other team in the nation like I do the Clones. And this isn't a projection system, after all. If I project Long, I would have to project the rest of the team.
As for Lard, his case is different. Lard was the 143rd ranked prospect in the 2016 class, but he wasn't ruled eligible until January. So, he redshirted. If he were eligible for the entire season, it's likely he would have made an impact on an Iowa State team searching hard for frontcourt players. So, in this case, Lard gets a 0.9 WS projection.
WHO'S NEW: Coach Steve Prohm has two Rivals150 recruits, including their first five-star in quite some time, Lindell Wigginton. Wigginton, the 23rd ranked recruit according to Rivals, receives a 2.3 WS projection. Fellow freshmen Terrence Lewis (ranked 112th) and Darius McNeill (3-star) receive a 0.9 and 0.6, respectively.
WHAT'S NEXT: Virginia transfer Marial Shayok is ineligible next season, but he takes up the Cyclones' 10th scholarship. ISU has recently lost out on runs at Egor Koulechov and the top JUCO in the nation Shakur Juiston, but they're still hot on the trail of remaining "free agents" -- some immediately eligible and some not.
9. Texas Longhorns (Last year: 11-22, 4-14) -- 13.4 WIN SHARES (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Shaka Smart's highly rated recruiting class didn't lead to wins, and one of the guys that headlined that class is now off to greener pastures. Jarrett Allen (3.3 WS) has opted for the NBA and hired an agent while Tevin Mack (1.5) is transferring and Shaq Cleare (2.1), Kendal Yancey (1.3) and Mareik Isom (0.2) are among those that graduated.
WHO'S BACK: Provided nothing changes, the rest of the freshmen are slated to return, led by Andrew Jones (2.8). James Banks (0.4) and Jacob Young (0.0) should also see bigger roles and probably better seasons. Juniors-to-be Kerwin Roach Jr. (1.8) and Eric Davis Jr. (0.6) are also solid returnees.
WHO'S NEW: The big one is Tulane transfer Dylan Osetowski becoming eligible. The 6-foot-9 junior averaged 11.3 points and 8.3 rebounds for the Green Wave in his sophomore season and accumulated 2.7 win shares.
There's also another strong recruiting class, led by four Rivals150 players: Matt Coleman (43), Jericho Sims (56), Jase Febres (66) and Royce Hamm (117). Together, they are worth a projected 5.1 win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: The Horns are hot on the trail for several highly recruited freshmen-to-be in Mohamed Bamba, Tugs Bowen and French point guard Sylvain Johnson.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (Last Year: 11-20, 5-13) -- 15.8 WIN SHARES (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Not much. Dante Buford (0.6) and Darrion Strong-Moore (0.3) have announced transfers, and Jordan Woodard (1.9) has graduated after an injury-plagued senior year. C.J. Cole (0.1) is another graduate.
WHO'S BACK: The nucleus of senior Khadeem Lattin (2.7), junior Rashard Odomes (2.2) and sophomores Kristian Doolittle (2.0) and Kameron McGusty (1.5) are certain to take a big jump after a year of experience and more coaching from Lon Kruger. Others like Jamuni McNeace (1.2), Christian James (0.7) and Jordan Shepherd (0.7) are also returning.
WHO'S NEW: Oklahoma sure feels like they're one big piece away from making a big leap from last year's 11-win total. Trae Young - the 15th-ranked recruit in the country - might be that guy. Brady Manek (138th), junior college transfer Ty Lazenby and three-star recruit Hannes Polla make up the rest of a recruiting class projected for 4.4 win shares. Finishing as the runner-up for Egor Koulechov still has to smart.
WHAT'S NEXT: At this point, they have just one scholarship to offer, and some coaches like to hang on to that just in case there's a mid-year transfer that becomes available. There doesn't appear to be any offers out to any incoming freshmen at this point.
7. Kansas State Wildcats (Last Year: 21-14, 8-10) -- 15.9 WIN SHARES (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Wesley Iwundu (4.4) and D.J. Johnson (3.8) are the big name graduates. Carlbe Ervin II (1.2), Austin Burke (0.1) and Zach Winter (0.1) are others.
WHO'S BACK: The junior class of Dean Wade (3.7), Barry Brown (2.9) and Kamau Stokes (2.3) are all returning after solid seasons. Sophomore Xavier Sneed (2.1) had a great debut while classmates Isaiah Maurice (0.6), Brian Patrick (0.5), Pierson McAtee (0.1) and Dante Williams (0.1) were all worth something. Redshirt freshman James Love missed all of last year with a foot injury, but he was rated as a three-star by Rivals, so I've handed him a 0.6 projection.
WHO'S NEW: A five-person recruiting class that includes two junior college players and three three-star freshmen. Levi Stockard, Nigel Shadd and Mike McGuirl make up the frosh (and 1.8 WS) while sophomore-to-be Makol Mawien and junior-to-be Amaad Wainwright are worth 1.2 together.
WHAT'S NEXT: Nothing for now. Coach Bruce Weber has all 13 scholarships accounted for despite several scholarship offers out to incoming freshmen, namely a trio of point guards Sylvain Francisco, Tyler Maye and Devante Carter.
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Last Year: 20-13, 9-9) -- 19.3 WIN SHARES (15 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Besides head coach Brad Underwood, the Cowboys must deal without early entry Jawun Evans (4.8) and graduated seniors Phil Forte (3.6) and Leyton Hammonds (2.1). That's a trio worth 10.5 win shares last year.
WHO'S BACK: By win shares, Jeffrey Carroll (5.0) was the best player on last year's team, and his decision to stay in school should pay major dividends. Fellow seniors Mitchell Solomon (2.0) and Tavarius Shine (1.7) are also back along with junior Davon Dillard (1.3) and a boat full of sophomores that includes Lindy Waters (1.3), Thomas Dziagwa (1.0), Cameron McGriff (0.9) and Brandon Averette (0.8).
WHO'S NEW: Newly promoted head coach Mike Boynton won a big grad transfer sweepstakes with the addition of Cal State Northridge point guard Kendall Smith. Smith averaged 16.7 points, 4.8 assists and 4.0 rebounds while accumulating 2.7 win shares. It's almost like they didn't even lose Jawun Evans. Or, more accurately, they lost just half of him.
St. John's big man Yankuba Sima was mid-season transfer to Stillwater this past season. He likely won't be eligible until the second semester. Sima is almost all defense and was worth 1.2 win shares during his freshman season. He was on his way to something similar last year through 10 games, so I gave him a half season's worth of 1.2 win shares -- 0.6 to be exact.
Boynton has also held on to a smallish recruiting class that includes Rivals150 point guard Zack Dawson, three-star Latravian Glover and unranked project Souleymane Diakite -- worth 1.5 win shares together.
WHAT'S NEXT: Boynton added another transfer to the mix in Miami, Ohio stud Michael Weathers, who won't be eligible until the 2018-19 season. Catch him in next year's write-up. He's almost certainly done adding, but some subtracting will be coming soon. Right now, he's two over.
5. Texas Tech Raiders (Last Year: 18-14, 6-12) -- 21.4 WIN SHARES (13 scholarships)
There are only 44 teams in the nation that have at least 21 win shares "projected" for next year. Here's the first of five in the Big 12.
WHO'S GONE: Anthony Livingston (2.5), Aaron Ross (2.4) and Devon Thomas (1.8) have all moved on with the exhaustion of their eligibility. Same for Matthew Temple (0.5), Thomas Brandsma (0.2) and Gio McLean (0.2).
WHO'S BACK: Seniors Keenan Evans (4.5), Zach Smith (3.5), Justin Gray (3.3) and Niem Stevenson (2.4) are all coming off solid years. Tommy Hamilton IV (1.3), Shadell Millinghaus (1.1) and Norense Odiase (1.1) also make up a senior class that brings back 17.2 win shares. Pretty significant. Every other returning class combines for 0.0.
WHO'S NEW: Florida transfer Brandone Francis did not have a good debut year for the Gators. However, how many times have we seen a transfer move into a new situation and break out? A lot. So, I'm not comfortable giving him what he put up in Florida. Instead, Francis gets a projection for being a top 35 recruit, which he was coming out of high school. So, 1.8 win shares.
Chris Beard boasts a six-person recruiting class. It was seven until prized JUCO recruit Jordan Brangers spurned them for Western Kentucky. Anyway, the class has two JUCOs (Joshua Webster and Hyron Edwards) and four frosh (Jarrett Culver, Daniel Mading, Zhaire Smith and Malik Ondigo). All are projected at 0.6 other than Edwards (0.9), who has a rare 4-star ranking for a JUCO, Smith and Ondigo (0.0).
WHAT'S NEXT: Beard should be done, and he has to be pretty damn excited to get this season started.
4. Baylor Bears (Last Year: 27-8, 12-6) -- 24.1 WIN SHARES (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only two are gone from last year's 27-win team. Ishmail Wainwright (3.3) graduated and Al Freeman (2.6) opted to transfer to NC State. Johnathan Motley's NBA decision is looming large.
WHO'S BACK: Speaking of Motley, he has yet to hire an agent so his 5.4 win shares live on in this total. Fellow seniors Manu Lecomte (4.0), Jo Lual-Acuil (3.7), Terry Maston (2.0) and Nuni Omot (1.1) make up a star-studded and experienced lineup.
Juniors Jake Lindsey (2.4) and King McClure (1.5) are also back, along with Jonathan Davis (0.3). Sophomore Wendell Mitchell (0.4) was the only one of a trio of freshmen that saw the court. However, Mark Vital and Tyson Jolly could make impacts this year, especially Vital, who was ranked 78th in the Rivals150 for his class. Thus, he receives a 1.2 win share projection.
WHO'S NEW: Scott Drew could afford to be picky with his scholarships, so he is bringing in Rivas150 power forward Tristan Clark (103 ranking, 0.9 projection) and JUCO big man Leonard Allen II (0.6).
WHAT'S NEXT: A lot of wins, probably. But they're also still waiting on the decisions of Motley (NBA or not) and the nation's top point guard Trevon Duval, who lists Kansas, Duke, Arizona and Seton Hall alongside the Bears in his top five.
3. Kansas Jayhawks (Last Year: 31-5, 16-2) -- 24.4 WIN SHARES (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Naismith award winner Frank Mason (7.5), last year's top recruit Josh Jackson (4.9) and solid role player Landen Lucas (1.5) graduated. Carlton Bragg (1.5) and Evan Maxwell (0.0) decided to transfer. Tyler Self (-0.1) also opted for the NBA ... not really.
WHO'S BACK: Devonte' Graham (4.9) is a good start for senior class that also may or may not include Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (3.1), who is testing the NBA waters without hiring an agent. Dwight Coleby (0.8) is a thing, too. Junior Lagerald Vick (2.3) and sophomore Udoka Azubuike (prorated 1.3) will see big roles next year, as well.
WHO'S NEW: Well, two big transfers. Former top 10 recruit Malik Newman and former top 40 guy Sam Cunliffe are in the fold. I took a big leap with Newman, who did not perform entirely like a top 10 dude at Mississippi State, accumulating 1.4 win shares. Like I did for Brandone Francis, I gave Newman his projection for where he ranked coming out of high school (4.5). As for Cunliffe, he lasted just 10 games at Arizona State so I'm giving him half of a 26-50 projection (0.9).
The Jayhawks also bring in a top 10 power forward in Billy Preston (4.5) and a top 40 point guard in Marcus Garrett (1.8).
WHAT'S NEXT: Kansas is currently chasing some big fish - Trevon Duval and Kevin Knox to name a couple - but they don't have any scholarships left. That's because they have stayed active on the free agent market, landing both Dedric and K.J. Lawson from Memphis and Charlie Moore from California. All three have to sit a year before becoming eligible next season. Interesting note: Of the 13 scholarship Kansas players, six of them started their careers elsewhere.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers (Last Year: 28-9, 12-6) -- 25.1 WIN SHARES (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: When it comes to win shares lost, West Virginia ranked third in the Big 12 behind Iowa State and Kansas. Nathan Adrian (4.7), Tarik Phillip (4.0), Teyvon Myers (1.7), Brandon Watkins (1.7) and James Long (0.3) equal 12.4 win shares out the door.
WHO'S BACK: Even though they lost a lot, West Virginia was a really good, well-rounded team last year that seemed to play 20 pretty good players. They also return a three-person senior class of Jevon Carter (6.3), Daxter Miles (3.2) and Elijah Macon (2.5). Junior Esa Ahmad (3.4) and sophomores Lamont West (2.0), Sagaba Konate (1.7) and James Bolden (1.1) are some other solid performers that are welcomed back.
WHO'S NEW: Rivals150 big man Derek Culver (ranked 85th, projected 1.2) headlines a five-person recruiting class that also includes freshmen Teddy Allen and Brandon Knapper and junior college imports Wesley Harris and D'Angelo Hunter. This is a group that combines for a projected 3.6 win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: The 'Neers are still one over the 13 scholarship limit, but they also wouldn't turn down 5-star shooting guard M.J. Walker if he wanted in, which looks highly unlikely.
1. TCU Horned Frogs (Last Year: 24-15, 6-12) -- 26.6 WIN SHARES (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: And now you're officially bewildered. But hang in there. It will soon make sense. The NIT champs did lose some dudes: Brandon Parrish (2.0), Karviar Shepherd (1.4), Chris Washburn (0.7) and Michael Williams (0.4) to graduation and Malique Trent (0.1) and Josh Parrish (0.3) to transfer. However....
WHO'S BACK: Seniors Kenrich Williams (5.6) and Vladimir Bradziansky (5.3) are back. Juniors Alex Robinson (3.3) and JD Miller (1.7) too. And sophomores Desmond Bane (2.3) and Jaylen Fisher (1.8). Even redshirt freshman Kouat Noi from the South Sudan earned a 0.6 projection for his previous season's rankings. It's a good, diverse group.
WHO'S NEW: TCU has moved around during the free agent season, but they recently slid to the top with the addition of grad transfer Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed (1.4) from VCU. You can throw him into what has to be one of TCU's greatest recruiting classes ever.
Two freshmen are in the Rivals150 - R.J. Nembhard (87th) & Kevin Samuel (111th) and Coach Jamie Dixon supplemented the group with a couple junior college players - Shawn Olden & Andre Pierce. Lat Mayen and Andre Rafus also received the 0.6 projection treatment as three-star freshmen recruits.
WHAT'S NEXT: The season? Let's get to the damn thing so we can see if TCU is really this good. I currently have them in the top 10. Of course, Dixon will have to lose one of his 14 assigned scholarships now that Hamdy-Mohamed is in the mix. That number could go to two, as Dixon is also hot on the trail of Pitt grad transfer Cameron Johnson, who lists the Frogs in his final six.
The Wrap
Yeah, so Kansas - the 300-time defending champion - is not first or second on this list. This is NOT a prediction that they will not win the Big 12. It's just a guide to what's coming back and what's coming in, and the truth is that I was pretty nice in giving Malik Newman a top 10 projection and four of their 13 scholarship players will be ineligible when the season begins. They could still add and subtract before the season begins, too. For now, though, the Big 12 is TCU's to lose. Not really, but Jamie Dixon is pretty dang good, huh?
Instead, the only incoming freshmen that will receive the 0.6 win shares projection are those that have a three-star rating by any recruiting service - 247, Scout, Rivals or ESPN. All incoming junior college players, though, will receive at least 0.6. The exceptions to that rule will be explained on a case-by-case basis. With that said, let's get to the Big 12 Conference.
I feel like the best way to unveil this thing is to do the countdown much like a former MTV Top 100 videos of the year special on New Year's Eve. Yes, MTV used to show music videos. Here we go, from 10 to 1, in the Big 12.
The Big 12 has recently had some changes and updates. View those updates here.
10. Iowa State Cyclones (Last year: 24-11, 12-6) -- 10.3 WIN SHARES (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Might as well get the biggest shocker out of the way. Or maybe it isn't when you consider Iowa Stat lost 20.6 win shares with the graduation of Monte Morris (6.5), Naz Mitrou-Long (4.6), Matt Thomas (4.0), Deonte Burton (3.4), Darrell Bowie (1.3), Merrill Holden (0.6) and Stuart Nezlek (0.1 -- yes , he did!) and the transfer of Simeon Carter (0.1). A quick check shows this is the highest number lost in the Big 12, and it will likely be within the top two or three in the nation.
WHO'S BACK: Senior Donovan Jackson (1.9), junior Nick Weiler-Babb (1.8) and sophomore Solomon Young (1.5) lead the way. Junior Ray Kasongo is a transfer from Tennessee that played a very minor role in 22 games for the Vols, accumulating 0.3 win shares. I ended up tagging him with a prorated 0.4 WS based on what he would have done in 30 games.
There also remains the interesting cases of Jakolby Long and Cameron Lard. Long actually did get some bit minutes this season, and I played around with throwing a 101-150 projection on him, as he rated there in his recruiting class and since he played behind 100 seniors. However, I realized I wouldn't be able to have the same kind of insight into every other team in the nation like I do the Clones. And this isn't a projection system, after all. If I project Long, I would have to project the rest of the team.
As for Lard, his case is different. Lard was the 143rd ranked prospect in the 2016 class, but he wasn't ruled eligible until January. So, he redshirted. If he were eligible for the entire season, it's likely he would have made an impact on an Iowa State team searching hard for frontcourt players. So, in this case, Lard gets a 0.9 WS projection.
WHO'S NEW: Coach Steve Prohm has two Rivals150 recruits, including their first five-star in quite some time, Lindell Wigginton. Wigginton, the 23rd ranked recruit according to Rivals, receives a 2.3 WS projection. Fellow freshmen Terrence Lewis (ranked 112th) and Darius McNeill (3-star) receive a 0.9 and 0.6, respectively.
WHAT'S NEXT: Virginia transfer Marial Shayok is ineligible next season, but he takes up the Cyclones' 10th scholarship. ISU has recently lost out on runs at Egor Koulechov and the top JUCO in the nation Shakur Juiston, but they're still hot on the trail of remaining "free agents" -- some immediately eligible and some not.
9. Texas Longhorns (Last year: 11-22, 4-14) -- 13.4 WIN SHARES (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Shaka Smart's highly rated recruiting class didn't lead to wins, and one of the guys that headlined that class is now off to greener pastures. Jarrett Allen (3.3 WS) has opted for the NBA and hired an agent while Tevin Mack (1.5) is transferring and Shaq Cleare (2.1), Kendal Yancey (1.3) and Mareik Isom (0.2) are among those that graduated.
WHO'S BACK: Provided nothing changes, the rest of the freshmen are slated to return, led by Andrew Jones (2.8). James Banks (0.4) and Jacob Young (0.0) should also see bigger roles and probably better seasons. Juniors-to-be Kerwin Roach Jr. (1.8) and Eric Davis Jr. (0.6) are also solid returnees.
WHO'S NEW: The big one is Tulane transfer Dylan Osetowski becoming eligible. The 6-foot-9 junior averaged 11.3 points and 8.3 rebounds for the Green Wave in his sophomore season and accumulated 2.7 win shares.
There's also another strong recruiting class, led by four Rivals150 players: Matt Coleman (43), Jericho Sims (56), Jase Febres (66) and Royce Hamm (117). Together, they are worth a projected 5.1 win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: The Horns are hot on the trail for several highly recruited freshmen-to-be in Mohamed Bamba, Tugs Bowen and French point guard Sylvain Johnson.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (Last Year: 11-20, 5-13) -- 15.8 WIN SHARES (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Not much. Dante Buford (0.6) and Darrion Strong-Moore (0.3) have announced transfers, and Jordan Woodard (1.9) has graduated after an injury-plagued senior year. C.J. Cole (0.1) is another graduate.
WHO'S BACK: The nucleus of senior Khadeem Lattin (2.7), junior Rashard Odomes (2.2) and sophomores Kristian Doolittle (2.0) and Kameron McGusty (1.5) are certain to take a big jump after a year of experience and more coaching from Lon Kruger. Others like Jamuni McNeace (1.2), Christian James (0.7) and Jordan Shepherd (0.7) are also returning.
WHO'S NEW: Oklahoma sure feels like they're one big piece away from making a big leap from last year's 11-win total. Trae Young - the 15th-ranked recruit in the country - might be that guy. Brady Manek (138th), junior college transfer Ty Lazenby and three-star recruit Hannes Polla make up the rest of a recruiting class projected for 4.4 win shares. Finishing as the runner-up for Egor Koulechov still has to smart.
WHAT'S NEXT: At this point, they have just one scholarship to offer, and some coaches like to hang on to that just in case there's a mid-year transfer that becomes available. There doesn't appear to be any offers out to any incoming freshmen at this point.
7. Kansas State Wildcats (Last Year: 21-14, 8-10) -- 15.9 WIN SHARES (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Wesley Iwundu (4.4) and D.J. Johnson (3.8) are the big name graduates. Carlbe Ervin II (1.2), Austin Burke (0.1) and Zach Winter (0.1) are others.
WHO'S BACK: The junior class of Dean Wade (3.7), Barry Brown (2.9) and Kamau Stokes (2.3) are all returning after solid seasons. Sophomore Xavier Sneed (2.1) had a great debut while classmates Isaiah Maurice (0.6), Brian Patrick (0.5), Pierson McAtee (0.1) and Dante Williams (0.1) were all worth something. Redshirt freshman James Love missed all of last year with a foot injury, but he was rated as a three-star by Rivals, so I've handed him a 0.6 projection.
WHO'S NEW: A five-person recruiting class that includes two junior college players and three three-star freshmen. Levi Stockard, Nigel Shadd and Mike McGuirl make up the frosh (and 1.8 WS) while sophomore-to-be Makol Mawien and junior-to-be Amaad Wainwright are worth 1.2 together.
WHAT'S NEXT: Nothing for now. Coach Bruce Weber has all 13 scholarships accounted for despite several scholarship offers out to incoming freshmen, namely a trio of point guards Sylvain Francisco, Tyler Maye and Devante Carter.
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Last Year: 20-13, 9-9) -- 19.3 WIN SHARES (15 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Besides head coach Brad Underwood, the Cowboys must deal without early entry Jawun Evans (4.8) and graduated seniors Phil Forte (3.6) and Leyton Hammonds (2.1). That's a trio worth 10.5 win shares last year.
WHO'S BACK: By win shares, Jeffrey Carroll (5.0) was the best player on last year's team, and his decision to stay in school should pay major dividends. Fellow seniors Mitchell Solomon (2.0) and Tavarius Shine (1.7) are also back along with junior Davon Dillard (1.3) and a boat full of sophomores that includes Lindy Waters (1.3), Thomas Dziagwa (1.0), Cameron McGriff (0.9) and Brandon Averette (0.8).
WHO'S NEW: Newly promoted head coach Mike Boynton won a big grad transfer sweepstakes with the addition of Cal State Northridge point guard Kendall Smith. Smith averaged 16.7 points, 4.8 assists and 4.0 rebounds while accumulating 2.7 win shares. It's almost like they didn't even lose Jawun Evans. Or, more accurately, they lost just half of him.
St. John's big man Yankuba Sima was mid-season transfer to Stillwater this past season. He likely won't be eligible until the second semester. Sima is almost all defense and was worth 1.2 win shares during his freshman season. He was on his way to something similar last year through 10 games, so I gave him a half season's worth of 1.2 win shares -- 0.6 to be exact.
Boynton has also held on to a smallish recruiting class that includes Rivals150 point guard Zack Dawson, three-star Latravian Glover and unranked project Souleymane Diakite -- worth 1.5 win shares together.
WHAT'S NEXT: Boynton added another transfer to the mix in Miami, Ohio stud Michael Weathers, who won't be eligible until the 2018-19 season. Catch him in next year's write-up. He's almost certainly done adding, but some subtracting will be coming soon. Right now, he's two over.
5. Texas Tech Raiders (Last Year: 18-14, 6-12) -- 21.4 WIN SHARES (13 scholarships)
There are only 44 teams in the nation that have at least 21 win shares "projected" for next year. Here's the first of five in the Big 12.
WHO'S GONE: Anthony Livingston (2.5), Aaron Ross (2.4) and Devon Thomas (1.8) have all moved on with the exhaustion of their eligibility. Same for Matthew Temple (0.5), Thomas Brandsma (0.2) and Gio McLean (0.2).
WHO'S BACK: Seniors Keenan Evans (4.5), Zach Smith (3.5), Justin Gray (3.3) and Niem Stevenson (2.4) are all coming off solid years. Tommy Hamilton IV (1.3), Shadell Millinghaus (1.1) and Norense Odiase (1.1) also make up a senior class that brings back 17.2 win shares. Pretty significant. Every other returning class combines for 0.0.
WHO'S NEW: Florida transfer Brandone Francis did not have a good debut year for the Gators. However, how many times have we seen a transfer move into a new situation and break out? A lot. So, I'm not comfortable giving him what he put up in Florida. Instead, Francis gets a projection for being a top 35 recruit, which he was coming out of high school. So, 1.8 win shares.
Chris Beard boasts a six-person recruiting class. It was seven until prized JUCO recruit Jordan Brangers spurned them for Western Kentucky. Anyway, the class has two JUCOs (Joshua Webster and Hyron Edwards) and four frosh (Jarrett Culver, Daniel Mading, Zhaire Smith and Malik Ondigo). All are projected at 0.6 other than Edwards (0.9), who has a rare 4-star ranking for a JUCO, Smith and Ondigo (0.0).
WHAT'S NEXT: Beard should be done, and he has to be pretty damn excited to get this season started.
4. Baylor Bears (Last Year: 27-8, 12-6) -- 24.1 WIN SHARES (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only two are gone from last year's 27-win team. Ishmail Wainwright (3.3) graduated and Al Freeman (2.6) opted to transfer to NC State. Johnathan Motley's NBA decision is looming large.
WHO'S BACK: Speaking of Motley, he has yet to hire an agent so his 5.4 win shares live on in this total. Fellow seniors Manu Lecomte (4.0), Jo Lual-Acuil (3.7), Terry Maston (2.0) and Nuni Omot (1.1) make up a star-studded and experienced lineup.
Juniors Jake Lindsey (2.4) and King McClure (1.5) are also back, along with Jonathan Davis (0.3). Sophomore Wendell Mitchell (0.4) was the only one of a trio of freshmen that saw the court. However, Mark Vital and Tyson Jolly could make impacts this year, especially Vital, who was ranked 78th in the Rivals150 for his class. Thus, he receives a 1.2 win share projection.
WHO'S NEW: Scott Drew could afford to be picky with his scholarships, so he is bringing in Rivas150 power forward Tristan Clark (103 ranking, 0.9 projection) and JUCO big man Leonard Allen II (0.6).
WHAT'S NEXT: A lot of wins, probably. But they're also still waiting on the decisions of Motley (NBA or not) and the nation's top point guard Trevon Duval, who lists Kansas, Duke, Arizona and Seton Hall alongside the Bears in his top five.
3. Kansas Jayhawks (Last Year: 31-5, 16-2) -- 24.4 WIN SHARES (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Naismith award winner Frank Mason (7.5), last year's top recruit Josh Jackson (4.9) and solid role player Landen Lucas (1.5) graduated. Carlton Bragg (1.5) and Evan Maxwell (0.0) decided to transfer. Tyler Self (-0.1) also opted for the NBA ... not really.
WHO'S BACK: Devonte' Graham (4.9) is a good start for senior class that also may or may not include Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (3.1), who is testing the NBA waters without hiring an agent. Dwight Coleby (0.8) is a thing, too. Junior Lagerald Vick (2.3) and sophomore Udoka Azubuike (prorated 1.3) will see big roles next year, as well.
WHO'S NEW: Well, two big transfers. Former top 10 recruit Malik Newman and former top 40 guy Sam Cunliffe are in the fold. I took a big leap with Newman, who did not perform entirely like a top 10 dude at Mississippi State, accumulating 1.4 win shares. Like I did for Brandone Francis, I gave Newman his projection for where he ranked coming out of high school (4.5). As for Cunliffe, he lasted just 10 games at Arizona State so I'm giving him half of a 26-50 projection (0.9).
The Jayhawks also bring in a top 10 power forward in Billy Preston (4.5) and a top 40 point guard in Marcus Garrett (1.8).
WHAT'S NEXT: Kansas is currently chasing some big fish - Trevon Duval and Kevin Knox to name a couple - but they don't have any scholarships left. That's because they have stayed active on the free agent market, landing both Dedric and K.J. Lawson from Memphis and Charlie Moore from California. All three have to sit a year before becoming eligible next season. Interesting note: Of the 13 scholarship Kansas players, six of them started their careers elsewhere.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers (Last Year: 28-9, 12-6) -- 25.1 WIN SHARES (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: When it comes to win shares lost, West Virginia ranked third in the Big 12 behind Iowa State and Kansas. Nathan Adrian (4.7), Tarik Phillip (4.0), Teyvon Myers (1.7), Brandon Watkins (1.7) and James Long (0.3) equal 12.4 win shares out the door.
WHO'S BACK: Even though they lost a lot, West Virginia was a really good, well-rounded team last year that seemed to play 20 pretty good players. They also return a three-person senior class of Jevon Carter (6.3), Daxter Miles (3.2) and Elijah Macon (2.5). Junior Esa Ahmad (3.4) and sophomores Lamont West (2.0), Sagaba Konate (1.7) and James Bolden (1.1) are some other solid performers that are welcomed back.
WHO'S NEW: Rivals150 big man Derek Culver (ranked 85th, projected 1.2) headlines a five-person recruiting class that also includes freshmen Teddy Allen and Brandon Knapper and junior college imports Wesley Harris and D'Angelo Hunter. This is a group that combines for a projected 3.6 win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: The 'Neers are still one over the 13 scholarship limit, but they also wouldn't turn down 5-star shooting guard M.J. Walker if he wanted in, which looks highly unlikely.
1. TCU Horned Frogs (Last Year: 24-15, 6-12) -- 26.6 WIN SHARES (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: And now you're officially bewildered. But hang in there. It will soon make sense. The NIT champs did lose some dudes: Brandon Parrish (2.0), Karviar Shepherd (1.4), Chris Washburn (0.7) and Michael Williams (0.4) to graduation and Malique Trent (0.1) and Josh Parrish (0.3) to transfer. However....
WHO'S BACK: Seniors Kenrich Williams (5.6) and Vladimir Bradziansky (5.3) are back. Juniors Alex Robinson (3.3) and JD Miller (1.7) too. And sophomores Desmond Bane (2.3) and Jaylen Fisher (1.8). Even redshirt freshman Kouat Noi from the South Sudan earned a 0.6 projection for his previous season's rankings. It's a good, diverse group.
WHO'S NEW: TCU has moved around during the free agent season, but they recently slid to the top with the addition of grad transfer Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed (1.4) from VCU. You can throw him into what has to be one of TCU's greatest recruiting classes ever.
Two freshmen are in the Rivals150 - R.J. Nembhard (87th) & Kevin Samuel (111th) and Coach Jamie Dixon supplemented the group with a couple junior college players - Shawn Olden & Andre Pierce. Lat Mayen and Andre Rafus also received the 0.6 projection treatment as three-star freshmen recruits.
WHAT'S NEXT: The season? Let's get to the damn thing so we can see if TCU is really this good. I currently have them in the top 10. Of course, Dixon will have to lose one of his 14 assigned scholarships now that Hamdy-Mohamed is in the mix. That number could go to two, as Dixon is also hot on the trail of Pitt grad transfer Cameron Johnson, who lists the Frogs in his final six.
The Wrap
Yeah, so Kansas - the 300-time defending champion - is not first or second on this list. This is NOT a prediction that they will not win the Big 12. It's just a guide to what's coming back and what's coming in, and the truth is that I was pretty nice in giving Malik Newman a top 10 projection and four of their 13 scholarship players will be ineligible when the season begins. They could still add and subtract before the season begins, too. For now, though, the Big 12 is TCU's to lose. Not really, but Jamie Dixon is pretty dang good, huh?
TCU 26.6 (14)
West Virginia 25.1 (14)
Kansas 24.4 (13)
Baylor 24.1 (13)
Texas Tech 21.7 (13)
Oklahoma State 19.3 (15)
Kansas State 15.9 (13)
Oklahoma 15.8 (12)
Texas 13.4 (10)
Iowa State 10.3 (10)
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