Projecting 2017: Southeastern Conference (Part 1)
This has to be the weirdest set of projections I've run across. The Southeastern Conference (SEC) is certainly not known for having too much success in basketball - other than Kentucky (and there's also that whole Final Four thing South Carolina did). You know, it's kind of like how football has one really good team and the rest is pretty meh. Well, that might be about to change with the additions of semi-new or new coaches at Alabama, Auburn and Missouri. Or it might not.
As always, hit the "Intro" link before reading this if you need some context.
Intro
Big 12
Big Ten
Updates
Here we go, the SEC from 14 to 8....
14. LSU Tigers (10-21, 2-16) -- 10.5 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The top guy they would love to have back is Antonio Blakeney, who entered the program as the yin to Ben Simmons' yang. Now, he leaves without much to show for it. Craig Victor (0.3), Brian Bridgewater (0.1) and Brandon Eddlestone (0.1) are all graduated. Kieran Hayward (0.0) has recently announced a transfer. Also, Johnny Jones is gone. So, things are looking up in Baton Rouge after all.
WHO'S BACK: Well...junior-to-be Brandon Sampson (1.4), senior Duop Reath (1.3) and sophomores Skylar Mays and Wayde Sims (1.1 each) all return. Other seniors Aaron Epps (0.7) and Jalyn Patterson (0.5) are also there. But that's about it.
WHO'S NEW: Will Wade coerced grad transfer Jeremy Combs (1.8) to Baton Rouge, a sign that he has a strong ability to recruit. He's hung on to and/or nabbed top 150 recruit Brandon Rachal (0.9), junior college guard Daryl Edwards (0.6) and preps Galen Alexander and Mayan Kiir (0.6 each).
WHAT'S NEXT: I'm a little surprised Wade hasn't done more house cleaning but maybe that is still to come. Then again, there is some decent talent left behind, so maybe he likes what he sees. We will know soon enough if he can coach them up. At this point, there are no reported outstanding offers out for any other prep players.
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (26-11, 12-6) -- 14.8 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The Gamecocks made a run to the Final Four, but several nice pieces from that run and team are graduated. That includes Sindarius Thornwell (7.2), Duane Notice (3.9) and Justin McKie (1.9). Also, P.J. Dozier (3.6) has decided to stay in the NBA Draft, meaning the Gamecocks might (MIGHT!) have a little bit of a rebuilding process on their hands. Good thing they have Frank Martin.
WHO'S BACK: Frank Martin! I already mentioned him. He also has some solid talent in junior Chris Silva (3.9) and sophomores Maak Kotsar (2.3) and Rakym Felder (1.5). Other than that, most of the returners were role players a year ago. We're talking about guys like junior Hassani Gravett (0.7), senior Ran Tut (0.6), sophomore Sedee Keith (0.4) and the like.
WHO'S NEW: Delaware transfer Kory Holden (1.6) is eligible and will be joined by a solid recruiting class that includes top 150 guard David Beatty (0.9) and four-star wing Ibrahim Doumbia (0.9). Big men Felipe Haase and Jason Cudd (0.6 each) are also part of the 'Cocks' talent restoration.
WHAT'S NEXT: South Carolina was in the mix - along with the rest of the nation - for Cameron Johnson. However, they are not in his top five. With all 13 scholarships accounted for, Coach Martin's roster could be set.
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (26-10, 12-6) -- 16.4 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Three seniors that put up a lot of production. Moses Kingsley (3.6), Dusty Hannahs (2.9) and Manuale Watkins (2.8) will be sorely missed. Coach Mike Anderson also watched R.J. Glasper transfer.
WHO'S BACK: The best senior class in the conference. Daryl Macon (3.9), Jaylen Barford (2.4), Anton Beard (2.0), Trey Thompson (1.7) and Dustin Thomas (1.6) all return with plenty of experience and solid production. Despite the spot on this list, I wouldn't spend my best enemy's money betting the Hogs will finish 12th. They also bring back sophomores C.J. Jones (0.7) and Adrio Bailey (0.5), which could see a bigger role this season.
WHO'S NEW: With three seniors gone and graduated, Anderson nabbed a big fish in top 30 recruit center Daniel Gafford, who I have projected for 1.8 win shares behind his No. 28 ranking from Rivals. Darious Hall and Khalil Garland are three-star prep recruits that pick up 0.6 projections.
WHAT'S NEXT: Anderson used their final scholarship on New Mexico point guard transfer Jalen Harris, who will sit out this upcoming year and have three remaining years of eligibility. Point guard Sylvain Francisco has a reported offer, but that may no longer be the case with Harris' arrival.
11. Tennessee Volunteers (16-16, 8-10) -- 16.5 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Kwe Parker is transferring, and Robert Hubbs (2.9) and Lew Evans (1.0) have graduated. The rest returns.
WHO'S BACK: Sophomore Grant Williams (3.4) is back after a tremendous debut season and leads a class that also includes Jordan Bowden (2.0), Lamonte Turner (1.6), Jordan Bone (1.0) and John Fulkerson (0.7). On a team with no seniors, the junior class also includes Admiral Schofield (1.7), Lucas Campbell (1.3) and Kyle Alexander (1.2). I'm still slapping redshirt freshman Jalen Johnson (0.9) with a projection despite his not playing last year.
WHO'S NEW: After signing seven players last year, Barnes is bringing in three newbies, including Yves Pons, Derrick Walker and Zach Kent. None are particularly rated highly, but Pons gets a 0.9 projection based on a four-star Scout rating. In the midst of writing this preview, Tennessee added a commit from junior college transfer Chris Darrington (0.6), which moved them up one spot ahead of Arkansas.
WHAT'S NEXT: Barnes has now filled his allotted 13 scholarships. That doesn't always mean things are set in stone, but if it's not, it's pretty close.
10. Vanderbilt Commodores (19-16, 10-8) -- 16.5 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only Luke Kornet (4.3) and Nolan Cressler (2.6) are producers that won't return next year. Camron Justice also graduated.
WHO'S BACK: This is the second-best senior class in the conference in terms of returning production. Riley LaChance (3.9), Jeff Roberson (3.5) and Matthew Fisher-Davis (3.0) are worth 10.4 win shares alone. It's just that they don't have a lot behind them. Junior Joe Toye (1.4) and sophomore Payton Willis (1.0) were both solid, but it's slim pickings after that.
WHO'S NEW: Two top 150 recruits have pledged and signed to play under Bryce Drew. Point guard Saben Lee (ranked 108 by Rivals) and big man Ejike Obinna (135) both get 0.9 projections while guard Maxwell Evans nabs 0.6 as a three-star recruit. Xavier transfer Larry Austin Jr. could also make an impact - and is projected for 0.6 win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: Notre Dame transfer Matt Ryan will help the Commodores in the future, but not this upcoming year. He will sit one and play two. I don't see any other reported offers out there right now, but they've recently lost out on Michigan transfer Mark Donnal to Clemson, so they could set their sights on another transfer.
Quick Note: Despite having the same number of win shares, I ranked Vanderbilt ahead of Tennessee simply because they haven't used all 13 scholarships. So, it's basically a win share per scholarship type thing.
9. Georgia Bulldogs (19-15, 9-9) -- 17.2 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: J.J. Frazier (5.0) is the big loss, but they did lose some other little pieces like Kenny Paul Geno (0.7) and Houston Kessler (0.2). Brandon Young (-0.1) has also left the program.
WHO'S BACK: The great and powerful Yante Maten (4.9) is currently "in" the NBA Draft process, but he could come back since he hasn't signed with an agent. He also wasn't invited to the NBA combine for what ever reason, but that doesn't necessarily mean he won't stay in the draft. He's joined atop the projection list by junior Derek Ogbeide (2.7), fellow senior Juwan Parker (1.6) and another junior Mike Edwards (1.1). William Jackson II (0.8) and E'Torrion Wilridge (0.8) are some other juniors that should have solid role this year.
WHO'S NEW: Top 50 recruit Rayshaun Hammonds (1.8) is a big addition to this group and will help make up one of the top frontcourts in the nation if Maten returns. Three other preps in the class include Nicolas Claxton, point guard Teshaun Hightower and newly added big man Isaac Kante. All are worth 0.6 projections.
WHAT'S NEXT: Now, they just wait for Maten. If he decides to come back, Georgia should be an NCAA Tournament contender. If not, well...it's back to the drawing board. They also could add a prep forward in Isaiah Whaley or Obadiah Toppin or guard Terrell Turner with the scholarship that would open with Maten's departure.
8. Kentucky Wildcats (32-6, 16-2) -- 18.3 Win Shares (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: This could be the point you stop reading. At least you made it this far! There's no way Kentucky finishes 8th next year, right? Well, with their current roster it's possible. But it's not possible this will be the roster they roll with. BBN loses Malik Monk (5.8), Bam Adebayo (5.6), De'Aaron Fox (5.1), Isaiah Briscoe (3.8), Derek Willis (3.5), Dominique Hawkins (2.5), Isaac Humphries (1.3) and Mychal Mulder (1.3). That's 28.9 total win shares from a season ago, and that's definitely not insignificant.
WHO'S BACK: Of course, John Calipari is used to this. He rebuilds and develops a roster better than anybody in the nation. Seriously, there's not a school in the land that could recover from this like Kentucky does and will. Right now, the roster is led by Wenyen Gabriel (2.2) and Sacha Killeya-Jones (prorated 1.1).
WHO'S NEW: And there's also Hamidou Diallo (2.3), who joined the team at semester this past year, redshirted and may or may not be on the team this year. Diallo has entered the NBA Draft process. If he returns I have him for a projected 2.3 win shares based on his No. 11 overall ranking. And, of course, he's not alone.
The recruiting class is headlined by three guys currently in the top 16 but none in the top 10. Jarred Vanderbilt (13th), P.J. Washington (14th) and Nick Richards (16th) are all five stars and help make up the best incoming frontcourt. Point guards Quade Green (21st) and Shai Alexander (31st) are also joined by Jemari Baker (78th) in a class that currently "projects" for 12.2 win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: Fill those final three scholarships. Pitt grad transfer Cameron Johnson has visited and has Kentucky in his top five. And five stars Kevin Knox and Mohamed Bamba could join the country's top ranked class. If that's how Calipari finishes out his allotted scholarships, Kentucky would jump to 30.7 win shares, the top of the SEC and in the top three in the nation.
Those are the bottom seven teams at this point in the Southeastern Conference. Incredibly enough, it doesn't include teams that finished 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th this past year. That's why this is fun! Look for the top seven/part two later today.
As always, hit the "Intro" link before reading this if you need some context.
Intro
Big 12
Big Ten
Updates
Here we go, the SEC from 14 to 8....
14. LSU Tigers (10-21, 2-16) -- 10.5 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The top guy they would love to have back is Antonio Blakeney, who entered the program as the yin to Ben Simmons' yang. Now, he leaves without much to show for it. Craig Victor (0.3), Brian Bridgewater (0.1) and Brandon Eddlestone (0.1) are all graduated. Kieran Hayward (0.0) has recently announced a transfer. Also, Johnny Jones is gone. So, things are looking up in Baton Rouge after all.
WHO'S BACK: Well...junior-to-be Brandon Sampson (1.4), senior Duop Reath (1.3) and sophomores Skylar Mays and Wayde Sims (1.1 each) all return. Other seniors Aaron Epps (0.7) and Jalyn Patterson (0.5) are also there. But that's about it.
WHO'S NEW: Will Wade coerced grad transfer Jeremy Combs (1.8) to Baton Rouge, a sign that he has a strong ability to recruit. He's hung on to and/or nabbed top 150 recruit Brandon Rachal (0.9), junior college guard Daryl Edwards (0.6) and preps Galen Alexander and Mayan Kiir (0.6 each).
WHAT'S NEXT: I'm a little surprised Wade hasn't done more house cleaning but maybe that is still to come. Then again, there is some decent talent left behind, so maybe he likes what he sees. We will know soon enough if he can coach them up. At this point, there are no reported outstanding offers out for any other prep players.
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (26-11, 12-6) -- 14.8 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The Gamecocks made a run to the Final Four, but several nice pieces from that run and team are graduated. That includes Sindarius Thornwell (7.2), Duane Notice (3.9) and Justin McKie (1.9). Also, P.J. Dozier (3.6) has decided to stay in the NBA Draft, meaning the Gamecocks might (MIGHT!) have a little bit of a rebuilding process on their hands. Good thing they have Frank Martin.
WHO'S BACK: Frank Martin! I already mentioned him. He also has some solid talent in junior Chris Silva (3.9) and sophomores Maak Kotsar (2.3) and Rakym Felder (1.5). Other than that, most of the returners were role players a year ago. We're talking about guys like junior Hassani Gravett (0.7), senior Ran Tut (0.6), sophomore Sedee Keith (0.4) and the like.
WHO'S NEW: Delaware transfer Kory Holden (1.6) is eligible and will be joined by a solid recruiting class that includes top 150 guard David Beatty (0.9) and four-star wing Ibrahim Doumbia (0.9). Big men Felipe Haase and Jason Cudd (0.6 each) are also part of the 'Cocks' talent restoration.
WHAT'S NEXT: South Carolina was in the mix - along with the rest of the nation - for Cameron Johnson. However, they are not in his top five. With all 13 scholarships accounted for, Coach Martin's roster could be set.
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (26-10, 12-6) -- 16.4 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Three seniors that put up a lot of production. Moses Kingsley (3.6), Dusty Hannahs (2.9) and Manuale Watkins (2.8) will be sorely missed. Coach Mike Anderson also watched R.J. Glasper transfer.
WHO'S BACK: The best senior class in the conference. Daryl Macon (3.9), Jaylen Barford (2.4), Anton Beard (2.0), Trey Thompson (1.7) and Dustin Thomas (1.6) all return with plenty of experience and solid production. Despite the spot on this list, I wouldn't spend my best enemy's money betting the Hogs will finish 12th. They also bring back sophomores C.J. Jones (0.7) and Adrio Bailey (0.5), which could see a bigger role this season.
WHO'S NEW: With three seniors gone and graduated, Anderson nabbed a big fish in top 30 recruit center Daniel Gafford, who I have projected for 1.8 win shares behind his No. 28 ranking from Rivals. Darious Hall and Khalil Garland are three-star prep recruits that pick up 0.6 projections.
WHAT'S NEXT: Anderson used their final scholarship on New Mexico point guard transfer Jalen Harris, who will sit out this upcoming year and have three remaining years of eligibility. Point guard Sylvain Francisco has a reported offer, but that may no longer be the case with Harris' arrival.
11. Tennessee Volunteers (16-16, 8-10) -- 16.5 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Kwe Parker is transferring, and Robert Hubbs (2.9) and Lew Evans (1.0) have graduated. The rest returns.
WHO'S BACK: Sophomore Grant Williams (3.4) is back after a tremendous debut season and leads a class that also includes Jordan Bowden (2.0), Lamonte Turner (1.6), Jordan Bone (1.0) and John Fulkerson (0.7). On a team with no seniors, the junior class also includes Admiral Schofield (1.7), Lucas Campbell (1.3) and Kyle Alexander (1.2). I'm still slapping redshirt freshman Jalen Johnson (0.9) with a projection despite his not playing last year.
WHO'S NEW: After signing seven players last year, Barnes is bringing in three newbies, including Yves Pons, Derrick Walker and Zach Kent. None are particularly rated highly, but Pons gets a 0.9 projection based on a four-star Scout rating. In the midst of writing this preview, Tennessee added a commit from junior college transfer Chris Darrington (0.6), which moved them up one spot ahead of Arkansas.
WHAT'S NEXT: Barnes has now filled his allotted 13 scholarships. That doesn't always mean things are set in stone, but if it's not, it's pretty close.
10. Vanderbilt Commodores (19-16, 10-8) -- 16.5 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only Luke Kornet (4.3) and Nolan Cressler (2.6) are producers that won't return next year. Camron Justice also graduated.
WHO'S BACK: This is the second-best senior class in the conference in terms of returning production. Riley LaChance (3.9), Jeff Roberson (3.5) and Matthew Fisher-Davis (3.0) are worth 10.4 win shares alone. It's just that they don't have a lot behind them. Junior Joe Toye (1.4) and sophomore Payton Willis (1.0) were both solid, but it's slim pickings after that.
WHO'S NEW: Two top 150 recruits have pledged and signed to play under Bryce Drew. Point guard Saben Lee (ranked 108 by Rivals) and big man Ejike Obinna (135) both get 0.9 projections while guard Maxwell Evans nabs 0.6 as a three-star recruit. Xavier transfer Larry Austin Jr. could also make an impact - and is projected for 0.6 win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: Notre Dame transfer Matt Ryan will help the Commodores in the future, but not this upcoming year. He will sit one and play two. I don't see any other reported offers out there right now, but they've recently lost out on Michigan transfer Mark Donnal to Clemson, so they could set their sights on another transfer.
Quick Note: Despite having the same number of win shares, I ranked Vanderbilt ahead of Tennessee simply because they haven't used all 13 scholarships. So, it's basically a win share per scholarship type thing.
9. Georgia Bulldogs (19-15, 9-9) -- 17.2 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: J.J. Frazier (5.0) is the big loss, but they did lose some other little pieces like Kenny Paul Geno (0.7) and Houston Kessler (0.2). Brandon Young (-0.1) has also left the program.
WHO'S BACK: The great and powerful Yante Maten (4.9) is currently "in" the NBA Draft process, but he could come back since he hasn't signed with an agent. He also wasn't invited to the NBA combine for what ever reason, but that doesn't necessarily mean he won't stay in the draft. He's joined atop the projection list by junior Derek Ogbeide (2.7), fellow senior Juwan Parker (1.6) and another junior Mike Edwards (1.1). William Jackson II (0.8) and E'Torrion Wilridge (0.8) are some other juniors that should have solid role this year.
WHO'S NEW: Top 50 recruit Rayshaun Hammonds (1.8) is a big addition to this group and will help make up one of the top frontcourts in the nation if Maten returns. Three other preps in the class include Nicolas Claxton, point guard Teshaun Hightower and newly added big man Isaac Kante. All are worth 0.6 projections.
WHAT'S NEXT: Now, they just wait for Maten. If he decides to come back, Georgia should be an NCAA Tournament contender. If not, well...it's back to the drawing board. They also could add a prep forward in Isaiah Whaley or Obadiah Toppin or guard Terrell Turner with the scholarship that would open with Maten's departure.
8. Kentucky Wildcats (32-6, 16-2) -- 18.3 Win Shares (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: This could be the point you stop reading. At least you made it this far! There's no way Kentucky finishes 8th next year, right? Well, with their current roster it's possible. But it's not possible this will be the roster they roll with. BBN loses Malik Monk (5.8), Bam Adebayo (5.6), De'Aaron Fox (5.1), Isaiah Briscoe (3.8), Derek Willis (3.5), Dominique Hawkins (2.5), Isaac Humphries (1.3) and Mychal Mulder (1.3). That's 28.9 total win shares from a season ago, and that's definitely not insignificant.
WHO'S BACK: Of course, John Calipari is used to this. He rebuilds and develops a roster better than anybody in the nation. Seriously, there's not a school in the land that could recover from this like Kentucky does and will. Right now, the roster is led by Wenyen Gabriel (2.2) and Sacha Killeya-Jones (prorated 1.1).
WHO'S NEW: And there's also Hamidou Diallo (2.3), who joined the team at semester this past year, redshirted and may or may not be on the team this year. Diallo has entered the NBA Draft process. If he returns I have him for a projected 2.3 win shares based on his No. 11 overall ranking. And, of course, he's not alone.
The recruiting class is headlined by three guys currently in the top 16 but none in the top 10. Jarred Vanderbilt (13th), P.J. Washington (14th) and Nick Richards (16th) are all five stars and help make up the best incoming frontcourt. Point guards Quade Green (21st) and Shai Alexander (31st) are also joined by Jemari Baker (78th) in a class that currently "projects" for 12.2 win shares.
WHAT'S NEXT: Fill those final three scholarships. Pitt grad transfer Cameron Johnson has visited and has Kentucky in his top five. And five stars Kevin Knox and Mohamed Bamba could join the country's top ranked class. If that's how Calipari finishes out his allotted scholarships, Kentucky would jump to 30.7 win shares, the top of the SEC and in the top three in the nation.
Those are the bottom seven teams at this point in the Southeastern Conference. Incredibly enough, it doesn't include teams that finished 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th this past year. That's why this is fun! Look for the top seven/part two later today.
Comments
Post a Comment