Projecting 2017: Missouri Valley Conference
Let's take a break from breaking down some of the Power Six conferences and instead move a little more local (for me anyway). The Missouri Valley Conference has seen a shift in what it looks like since I started this project, and it might see another change very soon with the possible addition of Valparaiso.
Until it is officially announced from the MVC, though, I'm only going to include the nine remaining teams following Wichita State's departure.
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Until it is officially announced from the MVC, though, I'm only going to include the nine remaining teams following Wichita State's departure.
PREVIOUS LINKS
Intro
Big 12
Big Ten
SEC (Part 1)
SEC (Part 2)
Updates
From 9 to 1 in the Missouri Valley....
9. Indiana State Sycamores (Last Year: 11-20, 5-13) -- 8.9 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The best player from last year's team that tied for the conference's worst record for one. Everett Clemons (3.4) has graduated, as have Matt Van Scyoc (1.6), TJ Bell (1.2) and Niels Bunschoten (0.5). Donovan Franklin (0.2) has also announced a transfer.
WHO'S BACK: Their second best player from last year's team. Senior Brenton Scott (2.3) leads the way while sophomore Jordan Barnes (1.5) has plenty of potential following a pretty strong debut season. After that, the production is a little bare. There's senior Brandon Murphy (0.9) and juniors Laquarious Paige (0.8) and Emondre Rickman (0.7), but for the Sycamores to see any improvement they'll need more.
WHO'S NEW: First and foremost, the loss of Elafayette Stone from their recruiting class is a bit of a hit. Stone was a three-star center according to ESPN, and his impact would have certainly been early at Indiana State. Instead, he's signed with Northern Oklahoma Junior College and won't be in Terre Haute next year.
Hargave Military Academy's Clayton Hughes will, though. Hughes has a three-star ranking from Scout and Rivals, earning a 0.6 projection. Junior college power forward Devin Thomas also picks up the standard JUCO projection (0.6) while point guard Tyreke Key and big man Daniel Hunerman are unranked adds in this class.
WHAT'S NEXT: Coach Greg Lansing has an offer out to Florida prep guard Xion Golding with hopes that he will fill that final scholarship, but his possible commitment wouldn't push the Sycamores any further up the MVC board.
8. Drake Bulldogs (Last Year: 7-24, 5-13) -- 9.1 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The two guys that led the Bulldogs this year - Ray Giacoletti and Jeff Rutter - are both gone from Des Moines. So is the graduated Jacob Enevold Jensen (0.3) and transfers Billy Wampler (1.2) and Johannes Dolven (-0.1).
WHO'S BACK: At this point, new coach Niko Medved has been able to talk most of their top guys into returning. Seniors Reed Timmer (2.5), Ore Arogundade (1.3), De'Antae McMurray (1.1), T.J. Thomas (0.9), CJ Rivers (0.7) and Graham Woodward (0.4) are all hanging around. Same for juniors Casey Schlatter (1.2), Nick McGlynn (0.8) and Kory Kuenstling (0.3).
WHO'S NEW: Medved added an 11th scholarship player a couple weeks ago in Maryland prep point guard Jalen Gibbs and picked up No. 12 in Australian point guard Noah Thomas. Neither are ranked by any of the major recruiting services at this time. Newton, Iowa prep guard Connor Gholson has also announced he will walk-on.
WHAT'S NEXT: It looks like Drake will hang on to that final scholarship and save it for next year's class, which could have as many as eight in it. That's when the real rebuild of the program begins.
7. Northern Iowa Panthers (Last Year: 14-16, 9-9) -- 10.4 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The team's two most productive players (by win shares) are gone and graduated - Jeremy Morgan (3.6) and Jordan Ashton (2.4).
WHO'S BACK: There's certainly something to build around, despite the loss of two of their premiere ball handlers. For instance, senior Bennett Koch (2.1) was really efficient in his chances on the block, and fellow senior Klint Carlson (1.6) is a nearly impossible mismatch on the offensive end. Junior Spencer Haldeman (1.4) had a solid season, as did senior Hunter Rhodes (1.3 prorated) in limited opportunities. They're also happy to welcome back redshirt junior Wyatt Lohaus (1.0 projection), who missed most of last season with an injury.
Sophomores Juwan McCloud (-0.1) and Isaiah Brown (-0.1) struggled in their first year of Division I hoops, but the hopes remain high for this backcourt duo.
WHO'S NEW: Cedar Rapids native Adam McDermott transferred from North Dakota, sat out the past season after accumulating 2.2 win shares and will be a major part of the Panthers rotation this upcoming season. Wyatt's brother, Tanner, redshirted this past season and could be ready to make a leap into the lineup. Also, Waverly-Shell Rock's Austin Phyfe and Minnesota prep Tywhon Pickford make up a two-person recruiting class that could likely see redshirt seasons.
WHAT'S NEXT: The season. McDermott is not on scholarship, which helped them to land Pickford, whom they really, really like. The Panthers are full at the moment.
6. Evansville Purple Aces (16-17, 6-12) -- 11.1 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: One senior class departing doesn't always lead to a big drop off, but two strong groups in a row certainly can. Last year, Evansville graduated D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius. This year, they wave goodbye to Jaylon Brown (5.2), David Howard (2.1) and Christian Benzon (1.6), plus Willie Wiley (0.7) and Sergej Vucetic (0.2). That's tough to overcome.
WHO'S BACK: If there's anything good that comes from losing a senior to a season-long knee injury, it would be that it sort of helps the next year's team. Coach Marty Simmons' son Blake Simmons (2.2 win shares as a junior) missed the entire season and will be back for a second try at a senior year. Junior Ryan Taylor (3.1) had a really nice season and will look to expound on that. Sophomore Dru Smith (2.0) was also solid in his debut year. Seniors Duane Gibson (1.7), Dalen Traore (0.8 prorated) and Solomon Hainna (0.6) add depth and experience.
WHO'S NEW: Junior college guard Marty Hill (0.6) is in the class and will be added to the mix, although the backcourt seems rather crowded. Preps Evan Kuhlman and Noah Frederiking could be on their way to redshirt years.
WHAT'S NEXT: Evansville has been known to search the transfer market, and that's something they could be doing as we speak. Right now, there are no reported offers out to any prep players, so if they add on it'll likely be by way of transfer.
5. Southern Illinois Salukis (Last Year: 17-16, 9-9) -- 11.2 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The graduated duo of Mike Rodriguez (3.0) and Sean O'Brien (2.6) will be sorely missed. Leo Vincent (0.9) has also departed.
WHO'S BACK: It starts with junior shooting guard Armon Fletcher (2.9) and continues with one of the conference's top big men and newcomers from last season in senior Thik Bol (2.8). Junior wing Sean Lloyd (1.4) makes for a trio of returning starters for the Salukis. However, their depth is certainly a question mark. Aaron Cook (0.6), Austin Weiher (prorated 0.6) Rudy Stradnieks (0.5) and Jonathan Wiley (0.4) make up the remaining pieces.
WHO'S NEW: Well, that's with the exception of Saint Louis transfer and point guard Marcus Bartley (0.8), who should fill Rodriguez's starting spot. I'll take the over on the 0.8, which is what he generated in his final year with the Billikens. Barry Hinson has also added junior college imports in guard Eric McGill and big man Kavion Pippen, who both pick up a standard 0.6 projection.
WHAT'S NEXT: Hinson is hot on the trail of several other JUCO guys -- point guard Eddie Reese and off guards Wayne Stewart, Dante Thorpe, Javion Hamlet and Daniel Soetan. If he gets two of them to fill out his allotted scholarships, it would move the Salukis up one more spot to fourth.
4. Illinois State Redbirds (Last Year: 28-7, 17-1) -- 12.1 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: There's no doubt Illinois State should have been in the NCAA Tournament this past season. Unfortunately, many of the pieces that made that possible are leaving. That's led by graduated seniors Paris Lee (5.1), Deontae Hawkins (4.8) and Tony Wills (2.8) and the transfers of MiKyle McIntosh (2.9) and DJ Clayton (2.2). That pretty much amounts to a starting five of departures.
WHO'S BACK: Phil Fayne (4.0) is the only actual starter that returns, following a terrific sophomore season where he seemingly did everything under the sun. Juniors Keyshawn Evans and Daouda Ndiaye (1.5) were also solid while sophomores Madison Williams (0.1) and Andre Washington (0.2) were fine in the time they received.
WHO'S NEW: Saint Louis transfer Milik Yarbrough (1.7) could help mitigate some of the damage present from all of those losses. Yarbrough was a solid player for the Billikens, but he could see a significant leap with more chances and a redshirt year to build on a strong start to his college career.
Coach Dan Muller has also hit the junior college ranks to potentially restore things without having to completely rebuild. Guards Zach Copeland and William Tinsley both get a 0.6 projection, while prep point guard and ESPN three-star Elijah Clarance (0.6) and prep power forward Taylor Bruninga round out the recruiting class. For now.
WHAT'S NEXT: I've been pretty impressed with Coach Muller's ability to rebuild this roster and be prepared for what he lost. A lot of mid-majors that lose what his Redbirds lost would be in sour shape. Now, their attention turns to the recruitment of prep wing Trace Young, who is rated as a four-star by ESPN.
3. Bradley Braves (Last Year: 13-20, 7-11) -- 13.0 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Four transfers worth a total of 0.2 win shares last year: Alex Foster (0.1), Ronnie Suggs (0.1), Lou Griffith and Jerome Merritt. However....
WHO'S BACK: The studs are back. Senior Donte Thomas (2.4) played just over 21 minutes per game, but he was efficient (51.7 percent shooting) and did a little of everything (7.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG and about one per of assists, steals and blocks). After Thomas, there's just a bunch of solid players. Senior JoJo McGlaston (1.3), juniors Luuk van Bree (1.1) and Dwayne Lautier-Ogunleye (1.1) and sophomores Koch Bar (1.7), Darrell Brown (1.3), Nate Kennell (1.1) and Jayden Hodgson (0.7).
WHO'S NEW: Brian Wardle went the junior college route to bring in another point guard in Luqman Lundy (0.6) while also snagging prep wings Elijah Childs (0.6) and Ryan Stipanovich. Childs is ranked as a three-star by Rivals.
WHAT'S NEXT: Wardle turned Green Bay into a 24-win outfit by his fourth year. He could knock on the door of that total in just his third at Bradley. The Braves have a pretty deep lineup with all five starters returning from a team that improved by eight wins. Is another eight-win improvement in the offing?
2. Missouri State Bears (Last Year: 17-16, 7-11) -- 18.9 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Three Bears are moving along via the transfer - Chris Kendrix (1.1), Austin Ruder (1.0) and Robin Thompson (0.7 - but the big loss is the graduated Dequon Miller (3.1). Jordan Martin (0.5) and Tyler McCullough (0.1) are going with him.
WHO'S BACK: A total of five Bears that generated at least 1.4 win shares a season ago. Alize Johnson (4.6) was terrific all season and is back for his senior year. The others are senior Jarrid Rhodes (1.4) and juniors Obediah Church (2.8), Jarred Dixon (2.0) and Ryan Kreklow (1.7). Senior Ronnie Rosseau (prorated 2.8) was also quite good in the 15 games he played in.
WHO'S NEW: Newcomer and Howard grad transfer James Miller was a significant addition after averaging 14.7 points and accumulating 1.4 win shares. He gets a 1.7 projection prorated up to a standard 30-game season. Redshirt freshman Greg Williams isn't new, but he also gets a 0.6 projection based on his three-star ranking in the previous class.
In the latest recruiting class, JUCOs Reggie Scurry and Abdul-Hakim Fofana each get a 0.6 projection while Mustafa Lawrence and Darian Scott are unranked incoming freshmen at the point guard and center spot, respectively.
WHAT'S NEXT: In what could be a make or break year for Paul Lusk, the Bears could look to fill their final scholarship with junior college off guard Dante Thorpe. There's also a chance they will look to bring in another immediately eligible transfer.
1. Loyola Chicago Ramblers (Last Year: 18-14, 8-10) -- 22.4 Win Shares (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: A terrific player Milton Doyle (4.3) has graduated along with walk-ons Glorind Lisha and Byron Burt. Maurice Kirby (0.6) and Matt Chastain (0.1) have opted to transfer.
WHO'S BACK: Four very good starters in seniors Donte Ingram (4.2), Aundre Jackson (4.1) and Ben Richardson (3.2) and junior Clayton Custer (3.5). These four make up a large part of the Braves' 2016-17 production, but there's also sophomores Bruno Skokna (0.6) and Cameron Satterwhite (0.6) that could see a jump. Senior Vlatkno Granic (prorated 0.7) also played OK in 22 games.
WHO'S NEW: The big addition is Fairleigh Dickinson transfer Marques Townes (2.5), who was last seen averaging 11.5 points per game during his sophomore season in 2015-16. That's not it, though. Porter Moser has the best recruiting class in the MVC to add to his already solid roster. JUCO guard Adarius Avery (0.6) and preps Christian Negron (0.6) and Cameron Krutwig (0.6) all get projections while another prep Lucas Williamson is unranked at the moment.
Edit: North Dakota grad transfer and former Utah State commit Carson Shanks changed his mind and will play at Loyola next year. He's coming off a 0.9 win share junior season.
WHAT'S NEXT: The season. The roster is set, the players look good and the fans should be excited. The Ramblers appear to be the MVC favorite.
Edit: Shanks comes in as the 14th scholarship, and the Ramblers will have to make room with another defection.
Recap: With Wichita State going to the AAC and Illinois State losing A LOT, things opened up for the rest of the league. However, there appears to really be only two strong contenders in Loyola and Missouri State. Bradley will have to prove they deserve to be in the upper third while Illinois State could certainly continue their run of success. I don't think 17-18 looks to be a particularly strong year for the MVC, but among mid-major teams Loyola is a top 15 team.
If Valpo is added to the mix, they would likely rank somewhere near the bottom of the conference, but we'll save that for when it's official. The complete list:
Loyola Chicago 22.4 (14)
Missouri State 18.9 (12)
Bradley 13.0 (13)
Illinois State 12.1 (12)
Southern Illinois 11.2 (11)
Evansville 11.1 (11)
Northern Iowa 10.4 (13)
Drake 9.2 (12)
Indiana State 8.9 (12)
Coach Dan Muller has also hit the junior college ranks to potentially restore things without having to completely rebuild. Guards Zach Copeland and William Tinsley both get a 0.6 projection, while prep point guard and ESPN three-star Elijah Clarance (0.6) and prep power forward Taylor Bruninga round out the recruiting class. For now.
WHAT'S NEXT: I've been pretty impressed with Coach Muller's ability to rebuild this roster and be prepared for what he lost. A lot of mid-majors that lose what his Redbirds lost would be in sour shape. Now, their attention turns to the recruitment of prep wing Trace Young, who is rated as a four-star by ESPN.
3. Bradley Braves (Last Year: 13-20, 7-11) -- 13.0 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Four transfers worth a total of 0.2 win shares last year: Alex Foster (0.1), Ronnie Suggs (0.1), Lou Griffith and Jerome Merritt. However....
WHO'S BACK: The studs are back. Senior Donte Thomas (2.4) played just over 21 minutes per game, but he was efficient (51.7 percent shooting) and did a little of everything (7.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG and about one per of assists, steals and blocks). After Thomas, there's just a bunch of solid players. Senior JoJo McGlaston (1.3), juniors Luuk van Bree (1.1) and Dwayne Lautier-Ogunleye (1.1) and sophomores Koch Bar (1.7), Darrell Brown (1.3), Nate Kennell (1.1) and Jayden Hodgson (0.7).
WHO'S NEW: Brian Wardle went the junior college route to bring in another point guard in Luqman Lundy (0.6) while also snagging prep wings Elijah Childs (0.6) and Ryan Stipanovich. Childs is ranked as a three-star by Rivals.
WHAT'S NEXT: Wardle turned Green Bay into a 24-win outfit by his fourth year. He could knock on the door of that total in just his third at Bradley. The Braves have a pretty deep lineup with all five starters returning from a team that improved by eight wins. Is another eight-win improvement in the offing?
2. Missouri State Bears (Last Year: 17-16, 7-11) -- 18.9 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Three Bears are moving along via the transfer - Chris Kendrix (1.1), Austin Ruder (1.0) and Robin Thompson (0.7 - but the big loss is the graduated Dequon Miller (3.1). Jordan Martin (0.5) and Tyler McCullough (0.1) are going with him.
WHO'S BACK: A total of five Bears that generated at least 1.4 win shares a season ago. Alize Johnson (4.6) was terrific all season and is back for his senior year. The others are senior Jarrid Rhodes (1.4) and juniors Obediah Church (2.8), Jarred Dixon (2.0) and Ryan Kreklow (1.7). Senior Ronnie Rosseau (prorated 2.8) was also quite good in the 15 games he played in.
WHO'S NEW: Newcomer and Howard grad transfer James Miller was a significant addition after averaging 14.7 points and accumulating 1.4 win shares. He gets a 1.7 projection prorated up to a standard 30-game season. Redshirt freshman Greg Williams isn't new, but he also gets a 0.6 projection based on his three-star ranking in the previous class.
In the latest recruiting class, JUCOs Reggie Scurry and Abdul-Hakim Fofana each get a 0.6 projection while Mustafa Lawrence and Darian Scott are unranked incoming freshmen at the point guard and center spot, respectively.
WHAT'S NEXT: In what could be a make or break year for Paul Lusk, the Bears could look to fill their final scholarship with junior college off guard Dante Thorpe. There's also a chance they will look to bring in another immediately eligible transfer.
1. Loyola Chicago Ramblers (Last Year: 18-14, 8-10) -- 22.4 Win Shares (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: A terrific player Milton Doyle (4.3) has graduated along with walk-ons Glorind Lisha and Byron Burt. Maurice Kirby (0.6) and Matt Chastain (0.1) have opted to transfer.
WHO'S BACK: Four very good starters in seniors Donte Ingram (4.2), Aundre Jackson (4.1) and Ben Richardson (3.2) and junior Clayton Custer (3.5). These four make up a large part of the Braves' 2016-17 production, but there's also sophomores Bruno Skokna (0.6) and Cameron Satterwhite (0.6) that could see a jump. Senior Vlatkno Granic (prorated 0.7) also played OK in 22 games.
WHO'S NEW: The big addition is Fairleigh Dickinson transfer Marques Townes (2.5), who was last seen averaging 11.5 points per game during his sophomore season in 2015-16. That's not it, though. Porter Moser has the best recruiting class in the MVC to add to his already solid roster. JUCO guard Adarius Avery (0.6) and preps Christian Negron (0.6) and Cameron Krutwig (0.6) all get projections while another prep Lucas Williamson is unranked at the moment.
Edit: North Dakota grad transfer and former Utah State commit Carson Shanks changed his mind and will play at Loyola next year. He's coming off a 0.9 win share junior season.
WHAT'S NEXT: The season. The roster is set, the players look good and the fans should be excited. The Ramblers appear to be the MVC favorite.
Edit: Shanks comes in as the 14th scholarship, and the Ramblers will have to make room with another defection.
Recap: With Wichita State going to the AAC and Illinois State losing A LOT, things opened up for the rest of the league. However, there appears to really be only two strong contenders in Loyola and Missouri State. Bradley will have to prove they deserve to be in the upper third while Illinois State could certainly continue their run of success. I don't think 17-18 looks to be a particularly strong year for the MVC, but among mid-major teams Loyola is a top 15 team.
If Valpo is added to the mix, they would likely rank somewhere near the bottom of the conference, but we'll save that for when it's official. The complete list:
Loyola Chicago 22.4 (14)
Missouri State 18.9 (12)
Bradley 13.0 (13)
Illinois State 12.1 (12)
Southern Illinois 11.2 (11)
Evansville 11.1 (11)
Northern Iowa 10.4 (13)
Drake 9.2 (12)
Indiana State 8.9 (12)
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