Projecting 2017: Southeastern Conference (Part 2)
Before getting to the top seven teams in the Southeastern Conference, don't forget to hit these links:
Intro
Big 12
Big Ten
Updates
Also, Part 1 of the SEC Preview is right here.
7. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Last Year: 16-16, 6-12) -- 19.1 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only Missouri and LSU were worse than Mississippi State last season, but the 'Dogs have the added excuse that they were very young. Only I.J. Ready (2.1) is a known defection heading into next year.
WHO'S BACK: Everybody else! That's certainly headlined by junior Quinndary Weatherspoon (3.5). He will have plenty of help from his classmates Aric Holman (2.2) and Xavian Stapleton (1.7), sophomores Lamar Peters (2.0), Mario Kegler (1.9), Tyson Carter (1.7), Schnider Herard (1.0) and Eli Wright (1.0). And add in redshirt freshman Abdul Ado (0.9), who was a top 100 recruit last year but was ruled ineligible for the season. So, I guess he isn't exactly "back," but he'll be there.
WHO'S NEW: Ado is new. So is prized blue chip recruit Nick Weatherspoon (1.8) and three-star power forward Keyshawn Feazell (0.6). There were only two scholarships to give, and Ben Howland found a couple of good ones.
WHAT'S NEXT: There appear to be a couple prep offers still outstanding - M.J Walker and Obadiah Toppin. However, if they're to add either of those guys (not likely), they would have to have a defection.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (Last Year: 22-14, 10-8) -- 19.8 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: There are two pretty significant losses in graduate Sebastian Saiz (4.7) and graduate transfer Cullen Neal (2.4), who is actually an immediately eligible graduate transfer for an unprecedented second time. Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey (0.2) and Jake Coddington (0.1) have also transferred, and Rasheed Brooks (1.1) ran out of eligibility.
WHO'S BACK: Despite some substantial losses, Ole Miss appears to be a fringey top 25 team with the return of junior Terence Davis (3.7) and seniors Deandre Burnett (3.1), Justas Furmanavicius and Marcanvis Hymon (1.3). If nothing else, these are some great names.
WHO'S NEW: The Rebels wouldn't be where they are without some key additions. Their work on past transfer markets and the current one has been huge. Memphis grad transfer Markel Crawford (3.5) was a monster addition to go along with 7-foot-0 Drake import Dominik Ojecniczak (1.7), who sat out and learned the system this past season.
Andy Kennedy has picked up some big adds in recruiting, as well. Top 100 wing Jamarko Pickett (ranked 77th) is joined in the class by top 150 point guard Devontae Shuler (118th) and ESPN four-star point guard Parker Stewart. He also hit the JUCO market to bring in power forward Bruce Stevens. In all, his recruiting class (3.6) and transfers (5.2) are worth 8.8 of that 19.8.
WHAT'S NEXT: Barring any late defections, Ole Miss appears to set to enter the season with a tremendous roster.
5. Missouri Tigers (Last Year: 8-24, 2-16) -- 21.1 WIN SHARES (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Kim Anderson is gone, but he has to be given a large amount of credit for taking one on the chin for the University of Missouri. He took a job that was very unappealing at the time, took his lumps (some very big lumps) and did what was good for the university. Now, the Tigers entire landscape has changed. They'll do it without the graduated Russell Woods (1.5) and transfers Willie Jackson (0.4), Frankie Hughes (0.1) and K.J. Walton (1.2), but I think they're OK with that.
WHO'S BACK: The first two sections are the most boring parts about the exciting new developments in Columbia. However, guys like Jordan Barnett (2.6), Terrence Phillips (2.2), Kevin Puryear (1.8), Jordan Geist (1.5) and Cullen VanLeer (1.3), that spent their entire careers losing, now should be able to bear the fruits of their labor.
WHO'S NEW: Heh. Everything is new at Mizzou. Head coach Cuonzo Martin is new, and it changed the entire outlook when he hired Michael Porter Sr. That's because it also meant the nation's top recruit, Michael Porter Jr. (4.5), would be coming with him. They've since added top 150 point guard Blake Harris (ranked 131st by Rivals) and hung on to another in C.J. Roberts (109th).
Outside of Porter, the biggest on-court addition has to be Canisius grad transfer Kassius Robertson (3.7), who averaged 16.1 points, 3.1 boards and 2.4 assists in his junior season while shooting 41 percent from 3-point land. Porter's addition made them respectable, Harris' made them a little more - but nabbing Robertson turned them into a top 25 team.
And that's not all. Jakoby Kemp redshirted last year and gets a 0.6 projection for his previous year's ranking.
WHAT'S NEXT: The WHO'S NEW section was exciting, but so is this one. There's a growing possibility that Michael Porter's brother, Jontay, will reclassify and join his brother next year in Columbia. Porter is ranked as a five-star and 23rd overall in the Class of 2018, which would give him a 2.3 projection. Additionally, five-star Illinois decommit Jeremiah Tilmon is still out there, and Mizzou seems like a possibility (although he hasn't said much).
Missouri's climb up the SEC over the last several weeks has been nothing if not fascinating. It's time to get excited in Columbia.
4. Florida Gators (Last Year: 27-9, 14-4) -- 21.4 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Florida was right at the top of the nation before some of their recent defections were announced. The NBA declaration of Devin Robinson (4.5) and the transfer of Eric Hester (1.2) to go along with graduations of Canyon Barry (3.6), Justin Leon (3.0) and Kasey Hill (2.3) have dropped them a bit.
WHO'S BACK: However, there is a nice group still coming back. KeVaughn Allen (4.7) was terrific in his sophomore season, and Kevarrius Hayes (3.3) and Chris Chiozza (3.4) were also very good. John Egbunu (2.7) and Keith Stone (1.2) round out the Gators' top five returning players.
WHO'S NEW: Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson (1.1) should have an early impact after sitting out a year. Dontay Bassett (0.6) is another that's spent a year in the system, but he wasn't able to play due to a stress fracture in his foot. And the recruiting class is pretty good. Three top 150 guys is led by wing Chase Johnson (ranked 100 by Rivals). The other two are combo guard Isaiah Stokes (139) and 6-foot-8, 270-pound monster DeAundre Ballard (133). ESPN four-star point guard Michael Okauru completes what figures to be an impact class.
WHAT'S NEXT: There remains an open scholarship, and it's certainly possible Mike White is on the transfer market prowl to fill it. We know they kicked the tires on Cameron Johnson but were eliminated from contention. There's probably someone we don't know about right now.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (Last Year: 16-15, 8-10) -- 22.1 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: What they're losing can easily be mitigated by their additions. But J.C. Hampton (1.8) is the one that could be their toughest to replace. Tavario Miller, Caleb Smith and Kobie Eubanks are also gone, but they combined for 0.6 win shares this past season.
WHO'S BACK: A&M didn't figure to have Tyler Davis (3.5) for two years much less three, but he's back. The same can be said for sophomore Robert Williams (3.6), who also opted to return to College Station. Juniors Admon Gilder (3.4), DJ Hogg (2.1) and senior Tonny Trocha-Morelos (2.0) are also key returning pieces to an A&M team that finished near the bottom of the SEC last year.
WHO'S NEW: This section is where A&M moves up the standings. First, there's redshirt freshman J.J. Caldwell, who had to sit out this past season due to academic ineligibility. He will be eligible this year and gets a 1.2 projection thanks to a top 60 ranking in his loaded high school senior class. They've also nabbed Marquette grad transfer Duane Wilson (1.0) to help in the backcourt.
Kennedy hit the recruiting trial and nabbed some big names. Savion Flagg, an athletic wing, is the biggest grab of them all as he ranks 34th in the nation by Rivals. Off guard Jay Jay Chandler (137 ranking) and point guard T.J. Starks (143) are also joined by center Isiah Jasey, who picked up a four-star ranking by Scout and ESPN. I wish him luck finding time in that front court, but I will still give him a 0.9 projection based on his ranking.
When you combine Caldwell and Wilson with the frosh, you get a total of 6.7 win shares. Not insignificant for a team that looks like they could contend for the conference crown.
WHAT'S NEXT: A&M used their final scholarship on All-NEC St. Francis transfer Josh Nebo, who will have to sit out this season and be eligible for the next two.
2. Auburn Tigers (Last Year: 18-14, 7-11) -- 22.4 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Is this bizarro world or what? Auburn lost Ronnie Johnson (1.5), LaRon Smith (0.5) and T.J. Dunans (0.3) to graduation and TJ Lang (0.9) and New Williams to transfer. Yet, here they are, ranking second (at this point!) in the entire league a year after they won just seven league games.
WHO'S BACK: The ballyhooed sophomores-to-be pretty much all had solid debut seasons. From Mustapha Heron (2.8) to Danjel Purifoy (2.6) to Jared Harper (2.4) to Anferenee McLemore (1.8) to Austin Wiley (prorated 1.4)...they all played well enough at times to create some excitement for this year. Along with that class, juniors Horace Spencer (1.3) and Bryce Brown (1.2) return.
WHO'S NEW: Bruce Pearl added a huge transfer a year ago when Presbyterian star DeSean Murray (4.5) made the move a year after averaging 20.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.0 steals. He figures to fit in perfectly with the talent in place.
Coach Pearl has another strong recruiting class coming in, led by two top 60 guys in power forward Chuma Okeke (ranked 39 by Rivals) and point guard Davion Mitchell (60). Junior college import Malik Dunbar (0.6) also joins the crew after two really strong seasons at the College of Central Florida.
WHAT'S NEXT: With just 11 scholarships accounted for, this team already looks really deep and talented. That's the kind of thing that plays brilliantly with Pearl's style. He still has two scholarships to use, and one or both of those could always go to a transfer.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (Last Year: 19-15, 10-8) -- 25.9 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Nick Saban, you have some company. Alabama has lost some to graduation and transfer (Jimmie Taylor, Corban Collins, Bola Olaniyan among others), but they're still projecting for a top 10 national ranking. Whoa.
WHO'S BACK: There's at least one stud in each class. Senior Riley Norris (2.9), junior Donta Hall (3.2) and sophomores Dazon Ingram (3.7) and Braxton Key (2.7) return after strong years. Key is a wild card right now, as he is currently testing the NBA Draft process. Avery Johnson (1.3) also had a decent season under dad. Additionally, Ar'Mond Davis (0.9), who had originally announced an intent to transfer looks to be coming back after all.
WHO'S NEW: A total of five recruits include four ranked in Rivals' top 95. The gem of the class is the consensus first or second ranked point guard in the nation, Collin Sexton (4.5). He's joined in the backcourt by five-star John Petty (2.3) and four-star Herb Jones (1.2) and in the class by power forward John Reese (1.2) and center Galin Smith (0.6). This all adds up to a top five recruiting class, and the reason Bama stands at the top of the SEC standings at the moment.
In addition to the terrific recruiting class, Daniel Giddens (1.1) - a transfer from Ohio State - will be eligible and should play a solid role in the frontcourt.
WHAT'S NEXT: There is one scholarship left, but I think what's next is putting it all together and making sure this prodigious talent leads to some wins. They could probably use some wing help at this point, but it's not desperate. Nonetheless, I'm excited to see how this thing goes.
RECAP
Among the top 25 power six conference schools, the SEC has five in that group. And one of them is not Kentucky. Actually, it's Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, Florida and Missouri - a group that finished a collective 8 games under .500 in the conference. Do I see it playing out this way? Probably not, because Kentucky is going to add more, South Carolina and Arkansas aren't going to be as bad as the projections and some of these higher teams probably aren't going to be this good. Still, this was pretty fun, right? I had fun at least.
Alabama 25.9 (12)
Auburn 22.4 (11)
Texas A&M 22.1 (12)
Florida 21.4 (12)
Missouri 21.1 (12)
Ole Miss 19.8 (13)
Mississippi State 19.1 (13)
Kentucky 18.3 (10)
Georgia 17.2 (13)
Vanderbilt 16.5 (12)
Tennessee 16.5 (13)
Arkansas 16.4 (13)
South Carolina 15.1 (13)
LSU 10.5 (13)
Big 12
Big Ten
Updates
Also, Part 1 of the SEC Preview is right here.
7. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Last Year: 16-16, 6-12) -- 19.1 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only Missouri and LSU were worse than Mississippi State last season, but the 'Dogs have the added excuse that they were very young. Only I.J. Ready (2.1) is a known defection heading into next year.
WHO'S BACK: Everybody else! That's certainly headlined by junior Quinndary Weatherspoon (3.5). He will have plenty of help from his classmates Aric Holman (2.2) and Xavian Stapleton (1.7), sophomores Lamar Peters (2.0), Mario Kegler (1.9), Tyson Carter (1.7), Schnider Herard (1.0) and Eli Wright (1.0). And add in redshirt freshman Abdul Ado (0.9), who was a top 100 recruit last year but was ruled ineligible for the season. So, I guess he isn't exactly "back," but he'll be there.
WHO'S NEW: Ado is new. So is prized blue chip recruit Nick Weatherspoon (1.8) and three-star power forward Keyshawn Feazell (0.6). There were only two scholarships to give, and Ben Howland found a couple of good ones.
WHAT'S NEXT: There appear to be a couple prep offers still outstanding - M.J Walker and Obadiah Toppin. However, if they're to add either of those guys (not likely), they would have to have a defection.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (Last Year: 22-14, 10-8) -- 19.8 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: There are two pretty significant losses in graduate Sebastian Saiz (4.7) and graduate transfer Cullen Neal (2.4), who is actually an immediately eligible graduate transfer for an unprecedented second time. Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey (0.2) and Jake Coddington (0.1) have also transferred, and Rasheed Brooks (1.1) ran out of eligibility.
WHO'S BACK: Despite some substantial losses, Ole Miss appears to be a fringey top 25 team with the return of junior Terence Davis (3.7) and seniors Deandre Burnett (3.1), Justas Furmanavicius and Marcanvis Hymon (1.3). If nothing else, these are some great names.
WHO'S NEW: The Rebels wouldn't be where they are without some key additions. Their work on past transfer markets and the current one has been huge. Memphis grad transfer Markel Crawford (3.5) was a monster addition to go along with 7-foot-0 Drake import Dominik Ojecniczak (1.7), who sat out and learned the system this past season.
Andy Kennedy has picked up some big adds in recruiting, as well. Top 100 wing Jamarko Pickett (ranked 77th) is joined in the class by top 150 point guard Devontae Shuler (118th) and ESPN four-star point guard Parker Stewart. He also hit the JUCO market to bring in power forward Bruce Stevens. In all, his recruiting class (3.6) and transfers (5.2) are worth 8.8 of that 19.8.
WHAT'S NEXT: Barring any late defections, Ole Miss appears to set to enter the season with a tremendous roster.
5. Missouri Tigers (Last Year: 8-24, 2-16) -- 21.1 WIN SHARES (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Kim Anderson is gone, but he has to be given a large amount of credit for taking one on the chin for the University of Missouri. He took a job that was very unappealing at the time, took his lumps (some very big lumps) and did what was good for the university. Now, the Tigers entire landscape has changed. They'll do it without the graduated Russell Woods (1.5) and transfers Willie Jackson (0.4), Frankie Hughes (0.1) and K.J. Walton (1.2), but I think they're OK with that.
WHO'S BACK: The first two sections are the most boring parts about the exciting new developments in Columbia. However, guys like Jordan Barnett (2.6), Terrence Phillips (2.2), Kevin Puryear (1.8), Jordan Geist (1.5) and Cullen VanLeer (1.3), that spent their entire careers losing, now should be able to bear the fruits of their labor.
WHO'S NEW: Heh. Everything is new at Mizzou. Head coach Cuonzo Martin is new, and it changed the entire outlook when he hired Michael Porter Sr. That's because it also meant the nation's top recruit, Michael Porter Jr. (4.5), would be coming with him. They've since added top 150 point guard Blake Harris (ranked 131st by Rivals) and hung on to another in C.J. Roberts (109th).
Outside of Porter, the biggest on-court addition has to be Canisius grad transfer Kassius Robertson (3.7), who averaged 16.1 points, 3.1 boards and 2.4 assists in his junior season while shooting 41 percent from 3-point land. Porter's addition made them respectable, Harris' made them a little more - but nabbing Robertson turned them into a top 25 team.
And that's not all. Jakoby Kemp redshirted last year and gets a 0.6 projection for his previous year's ranking.
WHAT'S NEXT: The WHO'S NEW section was exciting, but so is this one. There's a growing possibility that Michael Porter's brother, Jontay, will reclassify and join his brother next year in Columbia. Porter is ranked as a five-star and 23rd overall in the Class of 2018, which would give him a 2.3 projection. Additionally, five-star Illinois decommit Jeremiah Tilmon is still out there, and Mizzou seems like a possibility (although he hasn't said much).
Missouri's climb up the SEC over the last several weeks has been nothing if not fascinating. It's time to get excited in Columbia.
4. Florida Gators (Last Year: 27-9, 14-4) -- 21.4 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Florida was right at the top of the nation before some of their recent defections were announced. The NBA declaration of Devin Robinson (4.5) and the transfer of Eric Hester (1.2) to go along with graduations of Canyon Barry (3.6), Justin Leon (3.0) and Kasey Hill (2.3) have dropped them a bit.
WHO'S BACK: However, there is a nice group still coming back. KeVaughn Allen (4.7) was terrific in his sophomore season, and Kevarrius Hayes (3.3) and Chris Chiozza (3.4) were also very good. John Egbunu (2.7) and Keith Stone (1.2) round out the Gators' top five returning players.
WHO'S NEW: Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson (1.1) should have an early impact after sitting out a year. Dontay Bassett (0.6) is another that's spent a year in the system, but he wasn't able to play due to a stress fracture in his foot. And the recruiting class is pretty good. Three top 150 guys is led by wing Chase Johnson (ranked 100 by Rivals). The other two are combo guard Isaiah Stokes (139) and 6-foot-8, 270-pound monster DeAundre Ballard (133). ESPN four-star point guard Michael Okauru completes what figures to be an impact class.
WHAT'S NEXT: There remains an open scholarship, and it's certainly possible Mike White is on the transfer market prowl to fill it. We know they kicked the tires on Cameron Johnson but were eliminated from contention. There's probably someone we don't know about right now.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (Last Year: 16-15, 8-10) -- 22.1 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: What they're losing can easily be mitigated by their additions. But J.C. Hampton (1.8) is the one that could be their toughest to replace. Tavario Miller, Caleb Smith and Kobie Eubanks are also gone, but they combined for 0.6 win shares this past season.
WHO'S BACK: A&M didn't figure to have Tyler Davis (3.5) for two years much less three, but he's back. The same can be said for sophomore Robert Williams (3.6), who also opted to return to College Station. Juniors Admon Gilder (3.4), DJ Hogg (2.1) and senior Tonny Trocha-Morelos (2.0) are also key returning pieces to an A&M team that finished near the bottom of the SEC last year.
WHO'S NEW: This section is where A&M moves up the standings. First, there's redshirt freshman J.J. Caldwell, who had to sit out this past season due to academic ineligibility. He will be eligible this year and gets a 1.2 projection thanks to a top 60 ranking in his loaded high school senior class. They've also nabbed Marquette grad transfer Duane Wilson (1.0) to help in the backcourt.
Kennedy hit the recruiting trial and nabbed some big names. Savion Flagg, an athletic wing, is the biggest grab of them all as he ranks 34th in the nation by Rivals. Off guard Jay Jay Chandler (137 ranking) and point guard T.J. Starks (143) are also joined by center Isiah Jasey, who picked up a four-star ranking by Scout and ESPN. I wish him luck finding time in that front court, but I will still give him a 0.9 projection based on his ranking.
When you combine Caldwell and Wilson with the frosh, you get a total of 6.7 win shares. Not insignificant for a team that looks like they could contend for the conference crown.
WHAT'S NEXT: A&M used their final scholarship on All-NEC St. Francis transfer Josh Nebo, who will have to sit out this season and be eligible for the next two.
2. Auburn Tigers (Last Year: 18-14, 7-11) -- 22.4 Win Shares (11 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Is this bizarro world or what? Auburn lost Ronnie Johnson (1.5), LaRon Smith (0.5) and T.J. Dunans (0.3) to graduation and TJ Lang (0.9) and New Williams to transfer. Yet, here they are, ranking second (at this point!) in the entire league a year after they won just seven league games.
WHO'S BACK: The ballyhooed sophomores-to-be pretty much all had solid debut seasons. From Mustapha Heron (2.8) to Danjel Purifoy (2.6) to Jared Harper (2.4) to Anferenee McLemore (1.8) to Austin Wiley (prorated 1.4)...they all played well enough at times to create some excitement for this year. Along with that class, juniors Horace Spencer (1.3) and Bryce Brown (1.2) return.
WHO'S NEW: Bruce Pearl added a huge transfer a year ago when Presbyterian star DeSean Murray (4.5) made the move a year after averaging 20.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.0 steals. He figures to fit in perfectly with the talent in place.
Coach Pearl has another strong recruiting class coming in, led by two top 60 guys in power forward Chuma Okeke (ranked 39 by Rivals) and point guard Davion Mitchell (60). Junior college import Malik Dunbar (0.6) also joins the crew after two really strong seasons at the College of Central Florida.
WHAT'S NEXT: With just 11 scholarships accounted for, this team already looks really deep and talented. That's the kind of thing that plays brilliantly with Pearl's style. He still has two scholarships to use, and one or both of those could always go to a transfer.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (Last Year: 19-15, 10-8) -- 25.9 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Nick Saban, you have some company. Alabama has lost some to graduation and transfer (Jimmie Taylor, Corban Collins, Bola Olaniyan among others), but they're still projecting for a top 10 national ranking. Whoa.
WHO'S BACK: There's at least one stud in each class. Senior Riley Norris (2.9), junior Donta Hall (3.2) and sophomores Dazon Ingram (3.7) and Braxton Key (2.7) return after strong years. Key is a wild card right now, as he is currently testing the NBA Draft process. Avery Johnson (1.3) also had a decent season under dad. Additionally, Ar'Mond Davis (0.9), who had originally announced an intent to transfer looks to be coming back after all.
WHO'S NEW: A total of five recruits include four ranked in Rivals' top 95. The gem of the class is the consensus first or second ranked point guard in the nation, Collin Sexton (4.5). He's joined in the backcourt by five-star John Petty (2.3) and four-star Herb Jones (1.2) and in the class by power forward John Reese (1.2) and center Galin Smith (0.6). This all adds up to a top five recruiting class, and the reason Bama stands at the top of the SEC standings at the moment.
In addition to the terrific recruiting class, Daniel Giddens (1.1) - a transfer from Ohio State - will be eligible and should play a solid role in the frontcourt.
WHAT'S NEXT: There is one scholarship left, but I think what's next is putting it all together and making sure this prodigious talent leads to some wins. They could probably use some wing help at this point, but it's not desperate. Nonetheless, I'm excited to see how this thing goes.
RECAP
Among the top 25 power six conference schools, the SEC has five in that group. And one of them is not Kentucky. Actually, it's Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, Florida and Missouri - a group that finished a collective 8 games under .500 in the conference. Do I see it playing out this way? Probably not, because Kentucky is going to add more, South Carolina and Arkansas aren't going to be as bad as the projections and some of these higher teams probably aren't going to be this good. Still, this was pretty fun, right? I had fun at least.
Alabama 25.9 (12)
Auburn 22.4 (11)
Texas A&M 22.1 (12)
Florida 21.4 (12)
Missouri 21.1 (12)
Ole Miss 19.8 (13)
Mississippi State 19.1 (13)
Kentucky 18.3 (10)
Georgia 17.2 (13)
Vanderbilt 16.5 (12)
Tennessee 16.5 (13)
Arkansas 16.4 (13)
South Carolina 15.1 (13)
LSU 10.5 (13)
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