Projecting 2017: West Coast Conference
Jon Rothstein usually tweets the same stuff over and over and over again. However, recently he tweeted something about Saint Mary's.
Intro
Big 12
Big Ten
SEC (Part 1)
SEC (Part 2)
Missouri Valley
Updates
If this is the first time you've ever visited or read my blog, please do yourself a favor and read the Intro. I'm not saying you'd do yourself a favor because it's awesome to read. It will just help the stuff below this make a lot more sense.
From 10 to 1, a look at the West Coast Conference.
10. Portland Pilots (Last Year: 11-22, 2-16) -- 5.7 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Eight in total. The big losses, though, are transfers Jazz Johnson (2.7) and Gabe Taylor (2.1) and graduate Alec Wintering (1.5). Ray Barreno (0.7) and Jarrel Marshall (0.6) also graduated while Xavier Hallinan (0.1), Chier Maker (0.2), Alec Monson (0.1) and Andre Ferguson are other transfers.
WHO'S BACK: Senior D'Marques Tyson (1.7) and sophomore Joseph Smoyer (prorated 1.0) are the only two at 1.0 or more. Senior Philipp Hartwich (0.7), junior Rashad Jackson (0.7) and redshirt freshman Malcolm Porter are also on scholarships.
WHO'S NEW: A big recruiting class and a transfer. Franklin Porter (0.4) is a non-scholarship transfer from Saint Mary's, who played some bit minutes during his freshman season and is the son of Coach Terry Porter (so is Malcolm). The recruiting class, though, is what will tell the story of his regime.
Junior college additions are power forward Austin Stone (0.6) and wing Josh McSwiggan (0.6) while it's certainly likely at least some of the four frosh will have an impact. They are point guard JoJo Walker, off guard Taki Fahrensohn and bigs Tahirou Diabate and Hugh Hogland.
WHAT'S NEXT: There is one scholarship remaining, and they currently have reported offers out to prep point guard Marcus Shaver Jr. and wing Ron Artest III. Shaver is probably a long shot, as he has some bigger offers and is visiting Boise State in the near future. Artest, though, seems like a realistic candidate to fill the final spot.
9. Pepperdine Waves (Last Year: 9-22, 5-13) -- 6.5 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The Waves have been hit hard by graduation and by transfers. Two of their top players - Lamond Murray Jr. (2.3) and Chris Reyes (2.1) - graduated along with Amadi Udenyi (0.2), Kevin Hempy (0.1), Jeremy Major (0.1) and Jonathan Allen. Also, Nate Gehring (0.2), Craig LeCesne (0.2) and Kenneth Arrick have announced transfers.
WHO'S BACK: Sophomore Nolan Taylor (0.8) is the top guy returning from last year's team. Junior Ryan Keenan and other sophomores Knox Hellums, Kaijae Yee-Stephens and Elijah Lee are other scholarship players on the roster.
WHO'S NEW: He's not exactly new, but sophomore Kameron Edwards (1.2) did not play this past season due to a fractured jaw. Edwards had a solid 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds per contest as a freshman and will look to build on that success.
Now, if the team has success, they will thank their activity on the transfer market. Nevada transfer Eric Cooper Jr. (2.0) had a nice couple years in the Mountain West Conference and should pay immediate dividends. Former Auburn Tiger, former Washington Huskie and grad transfer Matthew Atewe (0.4) is another that could make an immediate impact.
That's not all the work Marty Wilson has done in acquiring talent, though. Junior college imports Darnell Dunn and Harrison Meads both get 0.6 projections while California prep point guard Jade Smith was a big addition. Smith is ranked as a four-star by Scout and nabs a 0.9 projection. Fellow prep guards Colbey Ross and Trae Berhow are currently unranked and unprojected.
WHAT'S NEXT: My guess is nothing. Wilson has done a really good job in rebuilding this roster through transfers and the junior college route. Smith and Cooper could be a pretty dynamic point guard duo. It'd be hard to pick more wins after they lost Murray and Reyes, but it doesn't seem all that crazy. To Marty Wilson, I give a big tip of the cap.
8. Loyola Marymount Lions (Last Year: 15-15, 8-10) -- 8.0 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: A pretty good senior class. Brandon Brown (2.7), Buay Tuach, Stefan Jovanovic (1.9), Kelvin Amayo (1.1) and Shamar Johnson (1.1) are all goners. So is transfer Munis Tutu (0.3).
WHO'S LEFT: Despite losing a terrific senior class, LMU does welcome back some decent role players that could grow into more. Seniors Steven Haney (1.8) and Petr Herman (1.2) and junior Trevor Manuel (1.3) will be the nucleus of this group. 7-foot-1 sophomore-to-be Mattias Markusson (0.6) and classmate Erik Johansson (0.5) will also look to build on decent debut seasons.
WHO'S NEW: Like our 9th and 10th teams, LMU has a huge recruiting class, and they'll need some early contributions. They hope some of that can come from a duo of junior college recruits: point guards James Batemon III and Cameron Allen. They also welcome in ESPN 3-star off guard Ryse Williams and ESPN 3-star wing Eli Scott, who were both pretty significant additions. All four pick up 0.6 projections while prep power forward Zafir Williams and prep guard Joe Quintana are unranked.
WHAT'S NEXT: At this point, it appears LMU has their roster set and their 13 scholarships accounted for.
7. Pacific Tigers (Last Year: 11-22, 4-14) -- 9.4 Win Shares (8 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: A LOT. They already knew they were losing T.J. Wallace (1.8), Tonko Vuko (1.2), David Taylor (0.3) and Sami Eleraky (0.1) to graduation, but there's also a boat load of transfers leaving by the day. The big one is Ray Bowles (1.6), but Jacob Lampkin (1.0), Keshon Montague (0.3), D.J. Ursery (0.4), K.J. Smith (0.4) and Maleke Haynes are also moving along.
WHO'S BACK: There's not a lot coming back from Damon Stoudamire's first team, but there are a pair of standout juniors to lean on - Anthony Townes (2.3) and Jack Williams (2.1). Only two others that played on scholarship last year will return next year (at this point) - senior Ilias Theodorou and junior Max Tinsley (0.3).
WHO'S NEW: The work Stoudamire put in on last year's transfer market should pay off this upcoming season. He's brought in Duquesne transfer TySean Powell (1.2), Saint Louis transfer Miles Reynolds (1.7) and Oregon transfer Kendall Small (0.6). I'm taking the over on that number for Small, for the record.
Stoudamire has also done some nice work on the recruiting trail for this season, welcoming in JUCOs Roberto Gallinat (0.6) and Jahlil Tripp (0.6), who will almost certainly make early impacts on the wing and on the block, respectively. Prep guard Otto Taylor has also announced he will walk-on.
WHAT'S NEXT: Well, Stoudamire still has five scholarships available, and there's no shortage of offers out. He's reportedly chasing a couple prep players in Kyle Small and Osbel Caraballo, as well as North Carolina A&T grad transfer Kevin 'Sam' Hunt, who has actually already committed and decommitted from two schools including Pacific. NC State could be on the prowl. Stay tuned for updates on this roster.
6. San Diego Toreros (Last Year: 13-18, 6-12) -- 11.8 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: It's a little refreshing to see just two names here after sorting through those last four schools. Brett Bailey (2.9) was last year's top win shares producer and won't be around any longer. Mark Carbone has also announced a transfer.
WHO'S BACK: Everybody else! Last year's team was super young, and they still only bring back one senior scholarship player in Cameron Neubauer (2.1). Juniors Olin Carter III (2.5) and Tyler Williams (1.0) also return along with a very large sophomore class led by Juwan Gray (1.6) and Frank Ryder (0.7).
WHO'S NEW: Transfers Isaiah Pineiro and Isaiah Wright should make an impact. Pineiro (2.6) comes from Portland State after a terrific season a couple years ago, while Isaiah Wright (0.8) is a former Utah Ute. Sophomore Alex Floresca (0.5) will also be back and hopefully healthy after missing this past year. Lamont Smith added frosh Emanuel Hylton, Joey Calcaterra and Andrew Ferguson - all unranked.
WHAT'S NEXT: Expectations are next. San Diego looks like an upper half team in the WCC. Now, they just have to do it.
5. Santa Clara Broncos (Last Year: 17-16, 10-8) -- 12.0 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Two standout seniors that were a big part of Santa Clara's first winning season since 2013: Jared Brownridge (4.3) and Nate Kratch (3.0). Matt Hubbard and Will Burkett have also ran out of eligibility while Tony Lewis and Akil Douglas (0.3) have announced a transfer.
WHO'S BACK: The junior class stands out, as KJ Feagin (prorated 4.3) and Matt Hauser (3.1) are both back after good seasons. Seniors Jarvis Pugh (2.6), Emmanuel Ndumanya (1.5) and Kai Healy (1.5) will also return. Evan Wardlow (prorated 0.7) and Henrik Jadersten (0.7) are other scholarship players that saw significant time this past season.
WHO'S NEW: The headliner here is Princeton transfer Henry Caruso, who gets a projected 4.4 win shares based on his full 2015-16 season. Caruso is a grad transfer that missed most of his senior year due to injury. Adding the 6-foot-4 forward to this mix is a big feather in the cap of Herb Sendek.
Sendek also brings in a trio of freshmen, led by consensus 3-star off guard Matt Turner (0.6). Shaquille Walters and Josip Vrankic are also in the class but unranked and unprojected at this time. Also, redshirt freshmen center Julian Roche could make an impact this season, although he's unprojected to do so at this time.
WHAT'S NEXT: Marcus Shaver Jr. recently tweeted that Santa Clara has pushed an offer on to his table. The prep point guard has plenty of options, but only time will tell if he wants to fill the final Santa Clara scholarship.
4. San Francisco Dons (Last Year: 20-13, 10-8) -- 18.0 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: You saw the win share total - not a lot. Ronnie Boyce III (2.4) is the most significant loss, as he's out of eligibility. Marquill Smith (0.5) and Chance Anderson (0.2) have also announced they will transfer.
WHO'S BACK: Nine players that put up at least 1.1 win share a year ago. That's a group headed by senior Chase Foster (2.9), juniors Matthew McCarthy (2.1) and Nate Renfro (2.1) and sophomore Jordan Ratinho (2.5). Others include juniors Frankie Ferrari (prorated 1.8) and Mladen Djordjevic (1.3) and sophomores Charles Minlend (1.9), Remu Raitanen (1.7) and Jimbo Lull (1.1). All of these guys played in at least 25 games last season.
WHO'S NEW: With that group of nine returning, Kyle Smith had the luxury of being a little picky in adding to his team. So, he went out and snagged junior college center Erik Poulsen (0.6), who will have three years of eligibility. He's also bringing in prep point guards Jamaree Bouyea and Souley Boum and Estonian power forward Taavi Jurkatamm.
WHAT'S NEXT: The next step. The Dons had a really nice season this past year, reaching 20 wins a year after winning 15. Is another five-win improvement out of the question?
3. Gonzaga Wildcats (Last Year: 37-2, 17-1) -- 22.0 Win Shares (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Oh, only four dudes that put up at least 5.0 win shares. Nigel Williams-Goss (8.1), Przemek Karnowski (5.1), Zach Collins (5.0) and Jordan Mathews (5.0) are all gone one way or another. Same for transfer Bryan Alberts (0.8) and Ryan Edwards (0.9), who is forgoing his final year of eligibility to enter the workforce.
WHO'S BACK: Dear Johnathan Williams (5.1), Silas Melson (3.9) and Josh Perkins (3.8), this is your team now. They'll have some help with Killian Tillie (2.7) coming back. Others that didn't have a big role last year will be asked to step up. We're talking about Rui Hachimura (1.0) and maybe even walk-on Dustin Triano (0.5).
WHO'S NEW: Let's start with some guys that redshirted this past year that could see some instant impact. You know, Gonzaga seems to do pretty well with improving those that take redshirts. Zach Norvell (0.9) was the 109th player in last year's class, and Jacob Larsen (0.6) was a consensus three-star recruit.
They have also added three in this year's recruiting class, including top 100 player Corey Kispert (1.2). Jesse Wade (0.9) is a four-star according to Scout and ESPN and gets a boost in his projection for that fact. And then there's French point guard Joel Ajayi, which is unranked and unprojected. There were some other major schools in on him, so it's hard to believe he doesn't deserve a ranking. However, I have read some scuttle that he is headed for a redshirt season. That, of course, could change.
WHAT'S NEXT: Gonzaga still has three scholarships available, and it would be hard to believe they won't use at least two of them. Coach Mark Few is the king of adding transfers here lately, and he is most certainly on the prowl. Former 5-star and Duke big man Chase Jeter is one that has been discussed and even visited Spokane.
2. Brigham Young Cougars (Last Year: 22-12, 12-6) -- 24.4 Win Shares (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only L.J. Rose (1.7) and Kyle Davis (0.6) at this point. They haven't been hit by the transfer bug at all....yet.
WHO'S BACK: The entire junior-to-be class is bringing back 12.4 win shares. Eric Mika (5.7), Elijah Bryant (prorated 3.1) and Nick Emery (3.0) are joined by Braiden Shaw (0.6). But they're hardly alone. Sophomores TJ Haws (3.1) and Yoeli Childs (2.8) had terrific debut seasons, and guys like seniors Corbin Kaufusi (prorated 1.1), Davin Guinn (0.9) and Jamal Aytes (0.5) and sophomore Steven Beo (0.5) add some solid depth with Dave Rose's run-and-gun style.
WHO'S NEW: Rose picked up prep big man Kolby Lee, who gets a 0.9 projection based on his four-star ranking by ESPN. He also lost former commit Christian Popoola to Utah, but he replaced his spot in the class by snagging junior college point guard Jahshire Hardnett (0.6). Rylan Bergerson is an unranked and unprojected guard in the class.
WHAT'S NEXT: Rose will have to process his roster down to 13 scholarships before the beginning of the season. There are some candidates for sure, but as always, I'm in no position to throw out ideas.
1. Saint Mary's Gaels (Last Year: 29-5, 16-2) -- 26.7 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Joe Rahon (5.0) and Dane Pineau (3.8) are very big losses. Stefan Gonzalez (0.7) is also transferring.
WHO'S BACK: The senior class is absolutely loaded with experience and talent - a deadly combination. Jock Landale (6.9) was the best player in the nation nobody ever seemed to talk about this past season. Calvin Hermanson (5.0) is also very good, and so is Emmett Naar (4.4). That's a great way to start, but then you add in juniors Evan Fitzner (2.3), Kyle Clark (1.3) and Jordan Hunter (prorated 0.9) and sophomores Tanner Krebs (1.4) and Jordan Ford (0.9) and you can see why Rothstein believes they could be the favorites. Actually, there's no could about it.
WHO'S NEW: The big one is the first two-time grad transfer in the history of grad transfers, Cullen Neal (2.4). Neal was originally playing for his dad, Craig, at New Mexico and then transferred with two years of eligibility to Ole Miss. Little did we know at the time, he was planning to make an unprecedented move. Or, eventually he planned that. Now, he's at Saint Mary's where he adds even more talent, even more experience and even more depth to this team.
Elijah Thomas (0.6) is a redshirt freshman wing that nabs a projection based on his previous year's ranking. And there's another three-star recruit in this year's class, Kristers Zoriks, that adds a 0.6 projection. Of course, being a point guard, I'm not sure he sees time next year with Cullen Neal, Emmett Naar and Jordan Ford taking up a lot of the backcourt minutes. Still, he gets a projection.
WHAT'S NEXT: Coach Randy Bennett added another transfer during this whole process, as he nabbed former South Florida forward Malik Fitts. He's ineligible for this upcoming season, and it looks like that will be the last of the adds for the Gaels.
Recap
So, yes, Saint Mary's would be considered the favorites by this very unscientific model. However, it's certainly possible Gonzaga could make up that difference with their three remaining scholarships, although I don't expect it to happen. Here's the complete list of how it stands now. I'll keep it updated here.
Saint Mary's 26.7 (13)
Brigham Young 23.7 (14)
Gonzaga 21.1 (10)
San Francisco 18.0 (13)
Santa Clara 12.0 (12)
San Diego 11.8 (13)
Pacific 9.4 (8)
Loyola Marymount 8.0 (13)
Pepperdine 6.5 (13)
Portland 5.7 (12)
Of course, this sent me to the database of returning and projected win shares to see just how true that was. And now, I'm here to share with you what I saw. After these links to my previous work.Randy Bennett returns his top three scorers and adds Cullen Neal. With the defections at Gonzaga, Saint Mary's could be WCC favorites.— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) May 8, 2017
Intro
Big 12
Big Ten
SEC (Part 1)
SEC (Part 2)
Missouri Valley
Updates
If this is the first time you've ever visited or read my blog, please do yourself a favor and read the Intro. I'm not saying you'd do yourself a favor because it's awesome to read. It will just help the stuff below this make a lot more sense.
From 10 to 1, a look at the West Coast Conference.
10. Portland Pilots (Last Year: 11-22, 2-16) -- 5.7 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Eight in total. The big losses, though, are transfers Jazz Johnson (2.7) and Gabe Taylor (2.1) and graduate Alec Wintering (1.5). Ray Barreno (0.7) and Jarrel Marshall (0.6) also graduated while Xavier Hallinan (0.1), Chier Maker (0.2), Alec Monson (0.1) and Andre Ferguson are other transfers.
WHO'S BACK: Senior D'Marques Tyson (1.7) and sophomore Joseph Smoyer (prorated 1.0) are the only two at 1.0 or more. Senior Philipp Hartwich (0.7), junior Rashad Jackson (0.7) and redshirt freshman Malcolm Porter are also on scholarships.
WHO'S NEW: A big recruiting class and a transfer. Franklin Porter (0.4) is a non-scholarship transfer from Saint Mary's, who played some bit minutes during his freshman season and is the son of Coach Terry Porter (so is Malcolm). The recruiting class, though, is what will tell the story of his regime.
Junior college additions are power forward Austin Stone (0.6) and wing Josh McSwiggan (0.6) while it's certainly likely at least some of the four frosh will have an impact. They are point guard JoJo Walker, off guard Taki Fahrensohn and bigs Tahirou Diabate and Hugh Hogland.
WHAT'S NEXT: There is one scholarship remaining, and they currently have reported offers out to prep point guard Marcus Shaver Jr. and wing Ron Artest III. Shaver is probably a long shot, as he has some bigger offers and is visiting Boise State in the near future. Artest, though, seems like a realistic candidate to fill the final spot.
9. Pepperdine Waves (Last Year: 9-22, 5-13) -- 6.5 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: The Waves have been hit hard by graduation and by transfers. Two of their top players - Lamond Murray Jr. (2.3) and Chris Reyes (2.1) - graduated along with Amadi Udenyi (0.2), Kevin Hempy (0.1), Jeremy Major (0.1) and Jonathan Allen. Also, Nate Gehring (0.2), Craig LeCesne (0.2) and Kenneth Arrick have announced transfers.
WHO'S BACK: Sophomore Nolan Taylor (0.8) is the top guy returning from last year's team. Junior Ryan Keenan and other sophomores Knox Hellums, Kaijae Yee-Stephens and Elijah Lee are other scholarship players on the roster.
WHO'S NEW: He's not exactly new, but sophomore Kameron Edwards (1.2) did not play this past season due to a fractured jaw. Edwards had a solid 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds per contest as a freshman and will look to build on that success.
Now, if the team has success, they will thank their activity on the transfer market. Nevada transfer Eric Cooper Jr. (2.0) had a nice couple years in the Mountain West Conference and should pay immediate dividends. Former Auburn Tiger, former Washington Huskie and grad transfer Matthew Atewe (0.4) is another that could make an immediate impact.
That's not all the work Marty Wilson has done in acquiring talent, though. Junior college imports Darnell Dunn and Harrison Meads both get 0.6 projections while California prep point guard Jade Smith was a big addition. Smith is ranked as a four-star by Scout and nabs a 0.9 projection. Fellow prep guards Colbey Ross and Trae Berhow are currently unranked and unprojected.
WHAT'S NEXT: My guess is nothing. Wilson has done a really good job in rebuilding this roster through transfers and the junior college route. Smith and Cooper could be a pretty dynamic point guard duo. It'd be hard to pick more wins after they lost Murray and Reyes, but it doesn't seem all that crazy. To Marty Wilson, I give a big tip of the cap.
8. Loyola Marymount Lions (Last Year: 15-15, 8-10) -- 8.0 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: A pretty good senior class. Brandon Brown (2.7), Buay Tuach, Stefan Jovanovic (1.9), Kelvin Amayo (1.1) and Shamar Johnson (1.1) are all goners. So is transfer Munis Tutu (0.3).
WHO'S LEFT: Despite losing a terrific senior class, LMU does welcome back some decent role players that could grow into more. Seniors Steven Haney (1.8) and Petr Herman (1.2) and junior Trevor Manuel (1.3) will be the nucleus of this group. 7-foot-1 sophomore-to-be Mattias Markusson (0.6) and classmate Erik Johansson (0.5) will also look to build on decent debut seasons.
WHO'S NEW: Like our 9th and 10th teams, LMU has a huge recruiting class, and they'll need some early contributions. They hope some of that can come from a duo of junior college recruits: point guards James Batemon III and Cameron Allen. They also welcome in ESPN 3-star off guard Ryse Williams and ESPN 3-star wing Eli Scott, who were both pretty significant additions. All four pick up 0.6 projections while prep power forward Zafir Williams and prep guard Joe Quintana are unranked.
WHAT'S NEXT: At this point, it appears LMU has their roster set and their 13 scholarships accounted for.
7. Pacific Tigers (Last Year: 11-22, 4-14) -- 9.4 Win Shares (8 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: A LOT. They already knew they were losing T.J. Wallace (1.8), Tonko Vuko (1.2), David Taylor (0.3) and Sami Eleraky (0.1) to graduation, but there's also a boat load of transfers leaving by the day. The big one is Ray Bowles (1.6), but Jacob Lampkin (1.0), Keshon Montague (0.3), D.J. Ursery (0.4), K.J. Smith (0.4) and Maleke Haynes are also moving along.
WHO'S BACK: There's not a lot coming back from Damon Stoudamire's first team, but there are a pair of standout juniors to lean on - Anthony Townes (2.3) and Jack Williams (2.1). Only two others that played on scholarship last year will return next year (at this point) - senior Ilias Theodorou and junior Max Tinsley (0.3).
WHO'S NEW: The work Stoudamire put in on last year's transfer market should pay off this upcoming season. He's brought in Duquesne transfer TySean Powell (1.2), Saint Louis transfer Miles Reynolds (1.7) and Oregon transfer Kendall Small (0.6). I'm taking the over on that number for Small, for the record.
Stoudamire has also done some nice work on the recruiting trail for this season, welcoming in JUCOs Roberto Gallinat (0.6) and Jahlil Tripp (0.6), who will almost certainly make early impacts on the wing and on the block, respectively. Prep guard Otto Taylor has also announced he will walk-on.
WHAT'S NEXT: Well, Stoudamire still has five scholarships available, and there's no shortage of offers out. He's reportedly chasing a couple prep players in Kyle Small and Osbel Caraballo, as well as North Carolina A&T grad transfer Kevin 'Sam' Hunt, who has actually already committed and decommitted from two schools including Pacific. NC State could be on the prowl. Stay tuned for updates on this roster.
6. San Diego Toreros (Last Year: 13-18, 6-12) -- 11.8 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: It's a little refreshing to see just two names here after sorting through those last four schools. Brett Bailey (2.9) was last year's top win shares producer and won't be around any longer. Mark Carbone has also announced a transfer.
WHO'S BACK: Everybody else! Last year's team was super young, and they still only bring back one senior scholarship player in Cameron Neubauer (2.1). Juniors Olin Carter III (2.5) and Tyler Williams (1.0) also return along with a very large sophomore class led by Juwan Gray (1.6) and Frank Ryder (0.7).
WHO'S NEW: Transfers Isaiah Pineiro and Isaiah Wright should make an impact. Pineiro (2.6) comes from Portland State after a terrific season a couple years ago, while Isaiah Wright (0.8) is a former Utah Ute. Sophomore Alex Floresca (0.5) will also be back and hopefully healthy after missing this past year. Lamont Smith added frosh Emanuel Hylton, Joey Calcaterra and Andrew Ferguson - all unranked.
WHAT'S NEXT: Expectations are next. San Diego looks like an upper half team in the WCC. Now, they just have to do it.
5. Santa Clara Broncos (Last Year: 17-16, 10-8) -- 12.0 Win Shares (12 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Two standout seniors that were a big part of Santa Clara's first winning season since 2013: Jared Brownridge (4.3) and Nate Kratch (3.0). Matt Hubbard and Will Burkett have also ran out of eligibility while Tony Lewis and Akil Douglas (0.3) have announced a transfer.
WHO'S BACK: The junior class stands out, as KJ Feagin (prorated 4.3) and Matt Hauser (3.1) are both back after good seasons. Seniors Jarvis Pugh (2.6), Emmanuel Ndumanya (1.5) and Kai Healy (1.5) will also return. Evan Wardlow (prorated 0.7) and Henrik Jadersten (0.7) are other scholarship players that saw significant time this past season.
WHO'S NEW: The headliner here is Princeton transfer Henry Caruso, who gets a projected 4.4 win shares based on his full 2015-16 season. Caruso is a grad transfer that missed most of his senior year due to injury. Adding the 6-foot-4 forward to this mix is a big feather in the cap of Herb Sendek.
Sendek also brings in a trio of freshmen, led by consensus 3-star off guard Matt Turner (0.6). Shaquille Walters and Josip Vrankic are also in the class but unranked and unprojected at this time. Also, redshirt freshmen center Julian Roche could make an impact this season, although he's unprojected to do so at this time.
WHAT'S NEXT: Marcus Shaver Jr. recently tweeted that Santa Clara has pushed an offer on to his table. The prep point guard has plenty of options, but only time will tell if he wants to fill the final Santa Clara scholarship.
4. San Francisco Dons (Last Year: 20-13, 10-8) -- 18.0 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: You saw the win share total - not a lot. Ronnie Boyce III (2.4) is the most significant loss, as he's out of eligibility. Marquill Smith (0.5) and Chance Anderson (0.2) have also announced they will transfer.
WHO'S BACK: Nine players that put up at least 1.1 win share a year ago. That's a group headed by senior Chase Foster (2.9), juniors Matthew McCarthy (2.1) and Nate Renfro (2.1) and sophomore Jordan Ratinho (2.5). Others include juniors Frankie Ferrari (prorated 1.8) and Mladen Djordjevic (1.3) and sophomores Charles Minlend (1.9), Remu Raitanen (1.7) and Jimbo Lull (1.1). All of these guys played in at least 25 games last season.
WHO'S NEW: With that group of nine returning, Kyle Smith had the luxury of being a little picky in adding to his team. So, he went out and snagged junior college center Erik Poulsen (0.6), who will have three years of eligibility. He's also bringing in prep point guards Jamaree Bouyea and Souley Boum and Estonian power forward Taavi Jurkatamm.
WHAT'S NEXT: The next step. The Dons had a really nice season this past year, reaching 20 wins a year after winning 15. Is another five-win improvement out of the question?
3. Gonzaga Wildcats (Last Year: 37-2, 17-1) -- 22.0 Win Shares (10 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Oh, only four dudes that put up at least 5.0 win shares. Nigel Williams-Goss (8.1), Przemek Karnowski (5.1), Zach Collins (5.0) and Jordan Mathews (5.0) are all gone one way or another. Same for transfer Bryan Alberts (0.8) and Ryan Edwards (0.9), who is forgoing his final year of eligibility to enter the workforce.
WHO'S BACK: Dear Johnathan Williams (5.1), Silas Melson (3.9) and Josh Perkins (3.8), this is your team now. They'll have some help with Killian Tillie (2.7) coming back. Others that didn't have a big role last year will be asked to step up. We're talking about Rui Hachimura (1.0) and maybe even walk-on Dustin Triano (0.5).
WHO'S NEW: Let's start with some guys that redshirted this past year that could see some instant impact. You know, Gonzaga seems to do pretty well with improving those that take redshirts. Zach Norvell (0.9) was the 109th player in last year's class, and Jacob Larsen (0.6) was a consensus three-star recruit.
They have also added three in this year's recruiting class, including top 100 player Corey Kispert (1.2). Jesse Wade (0.9) is a four-star according to Scout and ESPN and gets a boost in his projection for that fact. And then there's French point guard Joel Ajayi, which is unranked and unprojected. There were some other major schools in on him, so it's hard to believe he doesn't deserve a ranking. However, I have read some scuttle that he is headed for a redshirt season. That, of course, could change.
WHAT'S NEXT: Gonzaga still has three scholarships available, and it would be hard to believe they won't use at least two of them. Coach Mark Few is the king of adding transfers here lately, and he is most certainly on the prowl. Former 5-star and Duke big man Chase Jeter is one that has been discussed and even visited Spokane.
2. Brigham Young Cougars (Last Year: 22-12, 12-6) -- 24.4 Win Shares (14 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Only L.J. Rose (1.7) and Kyle Davis (0.6) at this point. They haven't been hit by the transfer bug at all....yet.
WHO'S BACK: The entire junior-to-be class is bringing back 12.4 win shares. Eric Mika (5.7), Elijah Bryant (prorated 3.1) and Nick Emery (3.0) are joined by Braiden Shaw (0.6). But they're hardly alone. Sophomores TJ Haws (3.1) and Yoeli Childs (2.8) had terrific debut seasons, and guys like seniors Corbin Kaufusi (prorated 1.1), Davin Guinn (0.9) and Jamal Aytes (0.5) and sophomore Steven Beo (0.5) add some solid depth with Dave Rose's run-and-gun style.
WHO'S NEW: Rose picked up prep big man Kolby Lee, who gets a 0.9 projection based on his four-star ranking by ESPN. He also lost former commit Christian Popoola to Utah, but he replaced his spot in the class by snagging junior college point guard Jahshire Hardnett (0.6). Rylan Bergerson is an unranked and unprojected guard in the class.
WHAT'S NEXT: Rose will have to process his roster down to 13 scholarships before the beginning of the season. There are some candidates for sure, but as always, I'm in no position to throw out ideas.
1. Saint Mary's Gaels (Last Year: 29-5, 16-2) -- 26.7 Win Shares (13 scholarships)
WHO'S GONE: Joe Rahon (5.0) and Dane Pineau (3.8) are very big losses. Stefan Gonzalez (0.7) is also transferring.
WHO'S BACK: The senior class is absolutely loaded with experience and talent - a deadly combination. Jock Landale (6.9) was the best player in the nation nobody ever seemed to talk about this past season. Calvin Hermanson (5.0) is also very good, and so is Emmett Naar (4.4). That's a great way to start, but then you add in juniors Evan Fitzner (2.3), Kyle Clark (1.3) and Jordan Hunter (prorated 0.9) and sophomores Tanner Krebs (1.4) and Jordan Ford (0.9) and you can see why Rothstein believes they could be the favorites. Actually, there's no could about it.
WHO'S NEW: The big one is the first two-time grad transfer in the history of grad transfers, Cullen Neal (2.4). Neal was originally playing for his dad, Craig, at New Mexico and then transferred with two years of eligibility to Ole Miss. Little did we know at the time, he was planning to make an unprecedented move. Or, eventually he planned that. Now, he's at Saint Mary's where he adds even more talent, even more experience and even more depth to this team.
Elijah Thomas (0.6) is a redshirt freshman wing that nabs a projection based on his previous year's ranking. And there's another three-star recruit in this year's class, Kristers Zoriks, that adds a 0.6 projection. Of course, being a point guard, I'm not sure he sees time next year with Cullen Neal, Emmett Naar and Jordan Ford taking up a lot of the backcourt minutes. Still, he gets a projection.
WHAT'S NEXT: Coach Randy Bennett added another transfer during this whole process, as he nabbed former South Florida forward Malik Fitts. He's ineligible for this upcoming season, and it looks like that will be the last of the adds for the Gaels.
Recap
So, yes, Saint Mary's would be considered the favorites by this very unscientific model. However, it's certainly possible Gonzaga could make up that difference with their three remaining scholarships, although I don't expect it to happen. Here's the complete list of how it stands now. I'll keep it updated here.
Saint Mary's 26.7 (13)
Brigham Young 23.7 (14)
Gonzaga 21.1 (10)
San Francisco 18.0 (13)
Santa Clara 12.0 (12)
San Diego 11.8 (13)
Pacific 9.4 (8)
Loyola Marymount 8.0 (13)
Pepperdine 6.5 (13)
Portland 5.7 (12)
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